Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T17:52:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FD 0xfd0c…fc7c crypto 33 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (74 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$39 (+2%) realized +$39 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -38% what you keep after slip
Net edge-38%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate36%12W / 21L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$70per market
Trades / day74.0pace
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$295
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (74 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-27.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 -19.8% -27.4% 36% 36% -22.8%
≤30d 33 -19.8% -27.4% 36% 36% -22.8%
≤90d 33 -19.8% -27.4% 36% 36% -22.8%
all 33 -19.8% -27.4% 36% 36% -22.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover74.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -27.4% 36% -22.8%
10% ← realistic here -34.4% 33% -30.2%
15% -40.7% 30% -36.9%
20% -46.5% 21% -43.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -20% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -19% → late -21% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$29 vs −$31 · ×0.95 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.54 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$39
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses12 / 21
Open positions0
Markets (closed)33 / 33
History coverage1d
Avg bet$70
Trades / day74.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 33 Trades
no open positions (9 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 19 $10 −$1 -11%
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo play for the Boston Celtics in 2026-27? Jun 19 $5 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 19 $104 −$104 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 19 $26 +$13 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 19 $26 +$21 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 19 $77 −$3 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 19 $31 −$9 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 19 $129 −$100 -78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 19 $230 −$100 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 19 $333 −$74 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 19 $103 +$37 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 19 $110 −$5 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 19 $26 +$14 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 19 $205 −$54 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 19 $110 +$48 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 19 $104 +$47 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 19 $52 −$1 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 19 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 19 $52 +$26 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 19 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 19 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 19 $52 −$25 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 19 $131 −$14 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 19 $103 +$79 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 19 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 19 $51 −$19 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 19 $31 +$4 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 19 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 19 $5 +$5 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 19 $26 +$50 +190%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 19 $25 +$8 +31%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET SELL Up 20¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $5 1h
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo play for the Boston Celtics in 2026-27? SELL No 62¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET SELL Up 42¢ $23 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET SELL Down 63¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET SELL Down 37¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET SELL Down 31¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET SELL Down 76¢ $41 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $141 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET SELL Down 29¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $102 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET SELL Down 41¢ $75 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $103 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET SELL Down 83¢ $140 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 97 history records