Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T12:44:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
FD 0xfd0a…27de other 34 markets active 2h ago coverage 11d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$14 (+5%) realized +$14 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate59%16W / 11L
Drawdown74%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day4.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit24%portable
Net worth$48now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$8
7 days+$24
14 days+$19
30 days+$19
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 91% +$13
sports 5% +$7
crypto 4% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)-5.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +45.4% +31.6% 75% 67% +4.7%
≤30d 27 +4.2% -5.7% 59% 56% -1.9%
≤90d 27 +4.2% -5.7% 59% 56% -1.9%
all 27 +4.2% -5.7% 59% 56% -1.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.7% 56% -1.9%
10% -14.8% 41% -11.3%
15% -23.0% 37% -19.9%
20% -30.6% 15% -27.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -29% → late +35% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$3 · ×1.05 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.53 per $1 lost it wins $1.53
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$48
Realized+$14
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses16 / 11
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)27 / 34
History coverage11d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day4.3
Drawdown74%
Kalshi-fit24%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 27 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win on 2026-07-03? Yes 86¢ 86¢ $48 $48 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $40 +$8 +20%
Morocco vs. Haiti: Morocco O/U 2.5 AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $5 +$2 +47%
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score AND Switzerland to score f Jun 24 $1 +$4 +416%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $20 +$9 +46%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $15 +$3 +20%
Will Sweden advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $1 $0 -31%
Will Senegal advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 23 $20 −$2 -8%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $12 −$12 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $15 +$1 +10%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $10 +$5 +46%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $6 +$4 +60%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $5 +$1 +21%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $8 +$4 +46%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $5 +$3 +50%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $13 +$2 +12%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $5 −$2 -29%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $3 +$1 +42%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $5 +$3 +62%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $7 +$2 +29%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $4 +$2 +57%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win on 2026-07-03? BUY Yes 86¢ $48 1h
Paraguay vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score AND Will Paraguay win on 2 BUY 17¢ $1 2d
Japan vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score AND Will Sweden win on 2026-06-2 BUY 17¢ $2 2d
Ecuador vs. Germany: Germany O/U 1.5 AND Germany to score first vs. Ec BUY 47¢ $5 3d
Morocco vs. Haiti: Morocco O/U 2.5 AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY 67¢ $5 3d
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score AND Switzerland to score f BUY 19¢ $1 4d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 83¢ $40 4d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 68¢ $20 4d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? BUY 44¢ $5 4d
Will Sweden advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No $1 4d
Will Senegal advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup SELL No 32¢ $19 4d
Will Senegal advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY No 33¢ $15 4d
Will Sweden advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 10¢ $1 4d
Will Senegal advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY No 34¢ $5 4d
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 83¢ $12 5d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 83¢ $15 5d
Will France win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $16 5d
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $15 5d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $15 5d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $10 6d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 62¢ $6 6d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 88¢ $6 6d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 72¢ $5 6d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes $1 7d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-2 BUY 45¢ $5 7d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $8 7d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 87¢ $8 7d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 66¢ $5 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $1 8d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $8 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $47.72 · official $47.72 (match) · 57 history records