Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T01:28:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

FD
0xfd08…0635
sports · 644 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$4,162 -4%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$4,162 · open +$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Wins small, loses big
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$19
Realized−$4,162
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses367 / 276
Whale WR (big bets)14%
Est. fees paid−$1,333
Open positions1
Markets (closed)643 / 644
History coverage54d
Avg bet$149
Trades / day63.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 1 History 643 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$119
7 days−$315
14 days−$677
30 days−$2,016
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Minnesota Lynx vs. Las Vegas Aces Las Vegas Aces 81¢ 84¢ $18 $19 +$1 (+3%)
Spurs vs. Knicks: 1H Moneyline Spurs 79¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Detroit Tigers vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 5.5 Under 68¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Tommy Paul Tommy Paul 43¢ 0¢ $127 $0 −$127 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Down 3¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Aston Villa FC vs. Liverpool FC: O/U 2.5 Under 53¢ 0¢ $16 $0 −$16 (-100%)
Roland Garros WTA: Anhelina Kalinina vs Diane Parry Anhelina Kalinina 72¢ 0¢ $80 $0 −$80 (-100%)
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 8.5 Under 69¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Up 68¢ 0¢ $49 $0 −$49 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Up 49¢ 0¢ $14 $0 −$14 (-100%)
San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 14.5 Under 73¢ 0¢ $65 $0 −$65 (-100%)
Set 1 Winner: Frech vs Gibson Gibson 53¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Down 17¢ 0¢ $21 $0 −$21 (-100%)
Phoenix Mercury vs. PortlandFire PortlandFire 54¢ 0¢ $37 $0 −$37 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Up 6¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Down 26¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Up 65¢ 0¢ $58 $0 −$58 (-100%)
Indiana Fever vs. Golden State Valkyries Indiana Fever 42¢ 0¢ $49 $0 −$49 (-100%)
Set Handicap: Zverev (-2.5) vs Halys (+2.5) Zverev 83¢ 0¢ $72 $0 −$72 (-100%)
Golden State Valkyries vs. Minnesota Lynx Golden State Valkyries 38¢ 0¢ $43 $0 −$43 (-100%)
HSBC Championships: Elena Rybakina vs Katie Boulter Elena Rybakina 70¢ 0¢ $13 $0 −$13 (-100%)
Set Handicap: Zverev (-1.5) vs Cobolli (+1.5) Zverev 68¢ 0¢ $71 $0 −$71 (-100%)
Set Handicap: Andreeva (-1.5) vs Cirstea (+1.5) Cirstea 61¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Golden Knights 44¢ 0¢ $36 $0 −$36 (-100%)
Knicks vs. Spurs Spurs 25¢ 0¢ $91 $0 −$91 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Indiana Fever vs. Connecticut Sun Jun 14 $13 +$5 +41%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 13 $12 +$1 +8%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 13 $17 −$4 -25%
Modena: Lucia Bronzetti vs Laura Samson Jun 13 $13 −$7 -56%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 13 $11 +$3 +24%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Oksana Selekhmeteva vs Taylah Preston Jun 13 $9 +$1 +15%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Viktorija Golubic vs Veronika Erjavec Jun 13 $8 +$1 +17%
Lyon: Daniel Galan vs Felix Balshaw Jun 13 $7 +$1 +8%
HSBC Championships: Emma Raducanu vs Iva Jovic Jun 13 $49 −$25 -50%
Toronto Tempo vs. Washington Mystics Jun 13 $14 +$11 +74%
HSBC Championships: Elena Rybakina vs Katie Boulter Jun 12 $28 −$14 -50%
HSBC Championships: Iva Jovic vs Amanda Anisimova Jun 12 $179 −$107 -60%
Las Vegas Aces vs. PortlandFire Jun 12 $72 −$43 -60%
Phoenix Mercury vs. Dallas Wings Jun 12 $155 −$1 -0%
Chicago Sky vs. Indiana Fever Jun 12 $94 +$60 +64%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 11 $77 +$19 +24%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets Jun 11 $69 +$8 +12%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Seattle Storm Jun 11 $53 +$44 +83%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $52 +$18 +35%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 11 $45 −$18 -39%
Spurs vs. Knicks: 1H Moneyline Jun 11 $12 +$11 +93%
Connecticut Sun vs. Toronto Tempo Jun 10 $21 −$9 -43%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 8.5 Jun 10 $17 −$17 -99%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres Jun 10 $14 −$3 -18%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Washington Nationals Jun 10 $11 +$9 +84%
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 8.5 Jun 10 $10 −$9 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 10 $8 +$2 +24%
Set 1 Winner: Bouzkova vs Vekic Jun 10 $36 −$17 -47%
Ilkley: Tereza Martincova vs Katie Swan Jun 10 $22 +$3 +12%
HSBC Championships: Victoria Mboko vs Karolina Pliskova Jun 10 $34 −$34 -100%
HSBC Championships: Iva Jovic vs Alexandra Eala Jun 10 $21 +$13 +60%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres Jun 10 $24 −$24 -99%
Atlanta Dream vs. Chicago Sky Jun 10 $18 +$5 +28%
Ilkley: Mimi Xu vs Elizabeth Mandlik Jun 09 $37 +$4 +11%
HSBC Championships: Maria Sakkari vs Tatjana Maria Jun 09 $6 −$6 -98%
Ilkley: Iryna Shymanovich vs Lanlana Tararudee Jun 09 $8 −$1 -16%
Libema Open: Nikola Bartunkova vs Hanne Vandewinkel Jun 09 $19 −$12 -61%
Ilkley: Lulu Sun vs Ella McDonald Jun 09 $14 +$5 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
HSBC Championships: Katie Boulter vs Leylah Fernandez Jun 09 $74 −$10 -13%
Ilkley: Darja Vidmanova vs Linda Fruhvirtova Jun 09 $85 −$39 -46%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Jun 09 $239 −$26 -11%
Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5) Jun 09 $40 +$8 +21%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 09 $68 −$28 -41%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $26 +$42 +160%
Spurs vs. Knicks: 1H Moneyline Jun 09 $49 −$15 -30%
Indiana Fever vs. Washington Mystics Jun 09 $69 −$16 -23%
France vs. Northern Ireland: O/U 4.5 Jun 08 $39 +$12 +31%
HSBC Championships: Karolina Pliskova vs McCartney Kessler Jun 08 $58 +$7 +12%
HSBC Championships: Qinwen Zheng vs Jaqueline Cristian Jun 08 $30 +$28 +96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 99% −$3,748
crypto 1% −$176
other 0% −$238
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Minnesota Lynx vs. Las Vegas Aces BUY Las Vegas Aces 81¢ $18 58m
Indiana Fever vs. Connecticut Sun SELL Indiana Fever 99¢ $18 58m
Indiana Fever vs. Connecticut Sun BUY Indiana Fever 70¢ $13 2h
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles SELL San Diego Padres 99¢ $13 2h
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles BUY San Diego Padres 92¢ $12 3h
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays SELL New York Yankees 100¢ $12 3h
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY New York Yankees 93¢ $11 3h
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays SELL Toronto Blue Jays 7¢ $1 3h
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Toronto Blue Jays 56¢ $6 4h
Modena: Lucia Bronzetti vs Laura Samson SELL Laura Samson 31¢ $6 4h
Modena: Lucia Bronzetti vs Laura Samson BUY Laura Samson 68¢ $13 5h
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins SELL St. Louis Cardinals 96¢ $13 5h
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins BUY St. Louis Cardinals 77¢ $11 6h
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Oksana Selekhmeteva vs Taylah Preston SELL Taylah Preston 99¢ $11 6h
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Oksana Selekhmeteva vs Taylah Preston BUY Taylah Preston 86¢ $9 6h
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Viktorija Golubic vs Veronika Erjavec SELL Viktorija Golubic 99¢ $9 6h
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Viktorija Golubic vs Veronika Erjavec BUY Viktorija Golubic 84¢ $8 7h
Lyon: Daniel Galan vs Felix Balshaw SELL Felix Balshaw 99¢ $8 7h
Lyon: Daniel Galan vs Felix Balshaw BUY Felix Balshaw 91¢ $7 7h
HSBC Championships: Emma Raducanu vs Iva Jovic BUY Iva Jovic 37¢ $10 8h
HSBC Championships: Emma Raducanu vs Iva Jovic BUY Iva Jovic 37¢ $1 8h
HSBC Championships: Emma Raducanu vs Iva Jovic BUY Iva Jovic 37¢ $1 8h
HSBC Championships: Emma Raducanu vs Iva Jovic SELL Emma Raducanu 63¢ $12 8h
HSBC Championships: Emma Raducanu vs Iva Jovic BUY Emma Raducanu 62¢ $12 8h
HSBC Championships: Emma Raducanu vs Iva Jovic SELL Iva Jovic 36¢ $12 8h
HSBC Championships: Emma Raducanu vs Iva Jovic BUY Iva Jovic 72¢ $24 8h
Toronto Tempo vs. Washington Mystics SELL Washington Mystics 99¢ $25 24h
Toronto Tempo vs. Washington Mystics BUY Washington Mystics 56¢ $14 25h
HSBC Championships: Elena Rybakina vs Katie Boulter BUY Elena Rybakina 70¢ $5 31h
HSBC Championships: Elena Rybakina vs Katie Boulter BUY Elena Rybakina 70¢ $1 31h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 68 -13.2% -21.4% 50% 44% -15.2%
≤30d 373 +0.8% -8.8% 56% 47% -12.1%
≤90d 643 +0.2% -9.4% 57% 46% -12.9%
all 643 +0.2% -9.4% 57% 46% -12.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover63.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.4% 46% -12.9%
10% ← realistic here -18.1% 30% -21.2%
15% -26.0% 21% -28.8%
20% -33.2% 14% -35.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $18.94 · official $18.94 (match) · 3500 history records