Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T16:55:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FD 0xfd07…6bb7 other 133 markets active 1h ago coverage 170d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 170d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$129 (-0%) realized −$48 · open −$81
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +44% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +15% what you keep after slip
Net edge+15%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate21%42W / 162L
Whale WR16%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$828per market
Trades / day13.9pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit31%portable
Net worth$143now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 170d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 97% −$28,689
crypto 2% −$564
sports 0% −$195
politics 0% −$79
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)+30.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 79 -79.3% -81.3% 3% 1% -70.1%
≤30d 96 -78.9% -80.9% 3% 2% -87.8%
≤90d 159 -39.1% -44.9% 14% 12% -53.9%
all 204 +44.0% +30.3% 21% 18% -38.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.9 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +30.3% 18% -38.9%
10% ← realistic here +17.8% 17% -44.8%
15% +6.4% 15% -50.1%
20% -4.0% 14% -55.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -49% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +44% · $-wt -30% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 16% (≥$536) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +160% → late -72% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
9.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$446 vs −$336 · ×1.33 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.36 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

170d coverage
Net worth$143
Realized−$48
Unrealized−$81
Win rate (resolved)21%
Wins / losses42 / 162
Whale WR (big bets)16%
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions2
Markets (closed)204 / 133
History coverage170d ⚠
Avg bet$828
Trades / day13.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit31%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 204 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Over 75¢ 65¢ $152 $132 −$20 (-13%)
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner FURIA 36¢ 6¢ $72 $11 −$61 (-85%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 78 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 21 $58 −$58 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 21 $60 −$60 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 21 $58 −$58 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 21 $60 −$60 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 21 $58 −$58 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 21 $58 −$58 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 21 $60 −$60 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 21 $60 −$60 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 21 $58 −$58 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 21 $58 −$58 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 21 $60 −$60 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 21 $58 −$58 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 21 $60 −$60 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 21 $60 −$60 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 21 $58 −$58 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 21 $31 +$363 +1189%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 21 $60 −$60 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 21 $60 −$60 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 21 $60 −$60 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 21 $58 −$58 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 21 $60 −$60 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 21 $58 −$58 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 21 $60 −$60 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 21 $58 −$58 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 21 $60 −$60 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 21 $60 −$60 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 21 $58 −$58 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 21 $58 −$58 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 21 $58 −$58 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 21 $58 −$58 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 21 $58 −$58 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 21 $58 −$58 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 21 $60 −$60 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 21 $58 −$58 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 21 $58 −$58 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 21 $60 −$60 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 21 $58 −$58 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 21 $58 −$58 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 21 $60 −$60 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 21 $60 −$60 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 21 $60 −$60 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 21 $58 −$58 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 21 $58 −$58 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 21 $58 −$58 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 21 $58 −$58 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 21 $58 −$58 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 21 $58 −$58 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 21 $58 −$58 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 21 $60 −$60 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 21 $58 −$58 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner SELL FURIA 20¢ $39 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY FURIA 36¢ $16 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY FURIA 36¢ $4 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY FURIA 36¢ $3 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY FURIA 36¢ $28 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY FURIA 36¢ $21 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY FURIA 24¢ $49 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof SELL Team Falcons 58¢ $29 1h
Games Total: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 75¢ $131 2h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY Team Falcons 60¢ $30 2h
Games Total: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 74¢ $22 2h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 71¢ $402 2d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 71¢ $50 2d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 71¢ $71 2d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 71¢ $71 2d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 71¢ $1 2d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 71¢ $2 2d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 71¢ $10 2d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 71¢ $5 2d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 71¢ $20 2d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 71¢ $10 2d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 71¢ $459 2d
Exact Score: France 0 - 0 Senegal? BUY No 96¢ $0 4d
Exact Score: France 0 - 0 Senegal? BUY No 96¢ $223 4d
Exact Score: France 0 - 0 Senegal? BUY No 96¢ $146 4d
Exact Score: France 0 - 0 Senegal? BUY No 96¢ $29 4d
Exact Score: France 0 - 0 Senegal? BUY No 96¢ $28 4d
Exact Score: France 0 - 0 Senegal? BUY No 96¢ $28 4d
Exact Score: France 0 - 0 Senegal? BUY No 96¢ $48 4d
Exact Score: France 0 - 0 Senegal? BUY No 96¢ $17 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $142.78 · official $142.78 (match) · 3500 history records