Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T17:54:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
FD 0xfd06…d1f3 sports 234 markets active 0h ago coverage 81d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$221 (+1%) realized +$266 · open −$45
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate55%127W / 104L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$75per market
Trades / day9.4pace
Fees−$231est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$47now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$133
7 days+$713
14 days+$805
30 days+$787
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 99% +$458
other 1% +$93
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-6.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 77 +7.9% -2.4% 60% 57% +0.8%
≤30d 147 +0.8% -8.8% 56% 54% -2.5%
≤90d 231 +3.7% -6.2% 55% 52% -5.7%
all 231 +3.7% -6.2% 55% 52% -5.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.2% 52% -5.7%
10% -15.2% 47% -14.7%
15% -23.4% 41% -23.0%
20% -30.9% 32% -30.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$43 vs −$48 · ×0.91 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.12 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

81d coverage
Net worth$47
Realized+$266
Unrealized−$45
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses127 / 104
Est. fees paid−$231
Open positions3
Markets (closed)231 / 234
History coverage81d
Avg bet$75
Trades / day9.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 231 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 13¢ $21 $26 +$4 (+20%)
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 22¢ $13 $22 +$8 (+65%)
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Leviatán Esports - Map 1 Winner Team Vitality 58¢ $58 $0 −$58 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 74 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $96 −$7 -8%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof Jun 19 $203 +$147 +72%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $54 +$46 +85%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $74 +$26 +35%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $102 −$100 -98%
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoff Jun 19 $188 +$101 +54%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $100 −$55 -55%
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 1 Winner Jun 19 $59 −$59 -100%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 6.5 Jun 19 $50 +$50 +100%
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $9 −$5 -57%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5 Jun 18 $9 −$9 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $53 +$47 +89%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $78 −$78 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $68 +$32 +47%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $158 +$42 +27%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Czechia O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $58 −$47 -81%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner Jun 18 $77 −$77 -100%
Spread: England (-2.5) Jun 17 $80 +$20 +25%
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $41 +$29 +72%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 17 $58 +$44 +75%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $73 −$5 -6%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $8 +$1 +20%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner Jun 17 $180 +$70 +39%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner Jun 17 $62 −$62 -100%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $36 −$16 -44%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $49 +$51 +104%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $15 +$15 +104%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $8 −$8 -99%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $25 +$55 +216%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $81 +$29 +36%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof Jun 15 $138 +$62 +45%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 15 $41 −$41 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $112 −$42 -38%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $68 +$17 +26%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $65 −$35 -54%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $66 +$34 +52%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $115 +$20 +18%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $75 +$24 +32%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $39 +$61 +156%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $112 +$3 +3%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $137 +$63 +46%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $164 +$36 +22%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $309 $0 +0%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $132 +$77 +59%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $54 −$54 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $127 +$132 +104%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $57 +$43 +75%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics (BO3) - VCT Masters London Jun 14 $89 −$89 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL G2 40¢ $11 13m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL G2 40¢ $11 13m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL G2 40¢ $1 13m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL G2 40¢ $16 14m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 51¢ $51 37m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL Spirit 49¢ $31 37m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL Spirit 49¢ $18 37m
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof SELL Paper Rex 100¢ $350 45m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 45¢ $45 1h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Leviatán Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Vitality 58¢ $23 1h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Leviatán Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Vitality 58¢ $12 1h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Leviatán Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Vitality 58¢ $14 1h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Leviatán Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Vitality 58¢ $9 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner SELL Spirit 100¢ $100 1h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex - Map 2 Winner SELL Paper Rex 100¢ $100 2h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY Spirit 54¢ $54 2h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY Paper Rex 56¢ $129 2h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY Paper Rex 56¢ $11 2h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex - Map 2 Winner BUY Paper Rex 74¢ $31 3h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex - Map 2 Winner BUY Paper Rex 74¢ $43 3h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY Spirit 40¢ $102 3h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoff SELL T1 Academy 100¢ $290 3h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY Paper Rex 63¢ $40 3h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY Paper Rex 63¢ $8 3h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY Paper Rex 63¢ $9 3h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY Paper Rex 63¢ $6 3h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex - Map 1 Winner BUY Paper Rex 51¢ $51 4h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex - Map 1 Winner SELL Paper Rex 45¢ $11 4h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex - Map 1 Winner SELL Paper Rex 45¢ $1 4h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex - Map 1 Winner SELL Paper Rex 45¢ $15 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $47.25 · official $47.25 (match) · 872 history records