Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T07:56:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
FD 0xfd05…51da sports 5 markets active 1h ago coverage 6d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$214 (-41%) realized −$213 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -52% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -56% what you keep after slip
Net edge-56%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate25%1W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$105per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$121now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$216
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-56.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -51.7% -56.3% 25% 25% -58.7%
≤30d 4 -51.7% -56.3% 25% 25% -58.7%
≤90d 4 -51.7% -56.3% 25% 25% -58.7%
all 4 -51.7% -56.3% 25% 25% -58.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -56.3% 25% -58.7%
10% -60.5% 25% -62.7%
15% -64.3% 25% -66.3%
20% -67.8% 25% -69.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -54% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -52% · $-wt -54% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$87 vs −$101 · ×0.86 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.29 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$121
Realized−$213
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses1 / 3
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions1
Markets (closed)4 / 5
History coverage6d
Avg bet$105
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 4 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 Under 50¢ 50¢ $122 $121 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $132 −$130 -98%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $93 −$92 -99%
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $93 +$87 +93%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $81 −$80 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 50¢ $124 1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 50¢ $132 19h
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score BUY No 51¢ $93 4d
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 1.5 BUY Over 51¢ $93 4d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 49¢ $81 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $120.78 · official $120.78 (match) · 6 history records