Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T08:27:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FD 0xfd04…45e6 crypto 1768 markets active 1h ago coverage 38d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (61 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$248 (-5%) realized −$248 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate48%782W / 836L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day60.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$22
7 days+$70
14 days+$186
30 days+$173
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$95
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (61 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-8.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 211 +13.8% +3.0% 65% 65% +0.3%
≤30d 1132 +5.4% -4.6% 50% 50% -4.8%
≤90d 1618 +1.6% -8.1% 48% 48% -7.7%
all 1618 +1.6% -8.1% 48% 48% -7.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover60.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.1% 48% -7.7%
10% ← realistic here -16.9% 47% -16.6%
15% -24.9% 47% -24.6%
20% -32.3% 46% -32.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late +12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$3 · ×1.12 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.04 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

38d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$248
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses782 / 836
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1618 / 1768
History coverage38d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day60.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1618 Trades
no open positions (500 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$3 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$3 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$3 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$3 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $3 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $3 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $3 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $3 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $3 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $3 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $3 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $3 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $3 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $3 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $3 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $3 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $3 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $3 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $3 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $3 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $3 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $3 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $3 9h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3105 history records