Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T14:21:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
FD 0xfd02…c1ca politics 169 markets active 1h ago coverage 136d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$4 (-0%) realized −$4 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate11%19W / 149L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$319per market
Trades / day3.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$54now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$2
14 days−$2
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 42% −$29
other 36% −$20
sports 12% +$43
crypto 4% −$2
tech 3% −$1
economics 2% −$1
world 1% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -0.1% -9.6% 14% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 13 -0.1% -9.6% 8% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 115 -0.1% -9.6% 4% 0% -9.6%
all 168 +0.2% -9.4% 11% 6% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 6% -9.5%
10% -18.0% 4% -18.2%
15% -25.9% 3% -26.1%
20% -33.2% 2% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
47% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +0% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$1 · ×7.2 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

136d coverage
Net worth$54
Realized−$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)11%
Wins / losses19 / 149
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)168 / 169
History coverage136d
Avg bet$319
Trades / day3.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 168 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June? No 100¢ 100¢ $54 $54 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 24 $613 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 23 $292 $0 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 22 $376 −$1 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $50 $0 -0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 21 $55 $0 -0%
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 20 $29 $0 -0%
Will paiN win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 19 $53 $0 +0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 30 $56 $0 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 30 $43 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 30 $45 $0 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? May 27 $260 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 26 $894 −$1 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 25 $297 −$1 -0%
Will Daniel Mercuri win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 23 $252 $0 -0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina May 23 $301 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? May 22 $265 $0 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 22 $307 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 20 $237 $0 -0%
Will Park Hong-keun win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 19 $596 −$1 -0%
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 18 $259 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 17 $103 $0 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 16 $799 −$1 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 16 $302 $0 -0%
Will Alejandro Davidovich Fokina win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 15 $315 $0 -0%
Will Antonio Villaraigosa win the California Governor Election in 2026 May 13 $265 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 12 $593 −$1 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 11 $302 −$1 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 10 $589 −$1 -0%
Will Roy Barreras win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? May 10 $316 $0 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 09 $265 −$1 -0%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch? May 05 $17 $0 +1%
Will Sergio Fajardo win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? May 05 $226 $0 -0%
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? May 04 $316 −$1 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 04 $279 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 04 $536 $0 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 03 $230 $0 -0%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 03 $311 $0 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? May 02 $591 −$1 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 02 $243 $0 -0%
Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 02 $270 −$1 -0%
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 02 $239 −$1 -0%
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 01 $234 $0 -0%
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 01 $561 −$1 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 01 $233 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 30 $673 −$1 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 30 $526 −$1 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 29 $234 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e Apr 29 $343 $0 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 27 $299 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 27 $251 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June? BUY No 100¢ $54 1h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $35 1h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $35 24h
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $49 24h
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $49 27h
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $43 41h
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $43 2d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $50 2d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $50 3d
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $55 3d
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $55 4d
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $29 4d
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $29 4d
Will paiN win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY No 100¢ $53 18d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $56 24d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $56 24d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $43 24d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $43 25d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $45 25d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $45 25d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $243 25d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $243 27d
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $260 27d
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $260 28d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $320 29d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $320 29d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $297 29d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $297 30d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $333 30d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $333 31d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $53.95 · official $53.95 (match) · 487 history records