Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T15:20:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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FC 0xfcfe…d420 sports 1299 markets active 2h ago coverage 178d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 178d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$6,521 (-4%) realized −$6,360 · open −$161
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%653W / 644L
Whale WR54%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$120per market
Trades / day12.3pace
Fees−$515est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$351now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 178d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 85% −$3,598
other 10% −$3,679
world 3% −$1,620
politics 2% −$1,377
economics 0% +$426
finance 0% +$51
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-12.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 73 -24.2% -31.4% 45% 42% -29.7%
≤30d 217 -10.1% -18.6% 52% 50% -14.5%
≤90d 638 -21.4% -28.9% 43% 42% -26.1%
all 1297 -3.1% -12.3% 50% 50% -15.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.3% 50% -15.1%
10% -20.7% 48% -23.3%
15% -28.3% 45% -30.7%
20% -35.4% 37% -37.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -18% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 54% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early +14% → late -20% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$80 vs −$97 · ×0.83 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

178d coverage
Net worth$351
Realized−$6,360
Unrealized−$161
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses653 / 644
Whale WR (big bets)54%
Est. fees paid−$515
Open positions2
Markets (closed)1297 / 1299
History coverage178d ⚠
Avg bet$120
Trades / day12.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 1297 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - European Pro League Series 7 Playoffs Infinite 50¢ 56¢ $250 $278 +$28 (+11%)
Map Handicap: AUR (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) BetBoom Team 71¢ 20¢ $262 $74 −$188 (-72%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China Jun 18 $132 −$132 -100%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner Jun 18 $124 +$76 +61%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner Jun 18 $125 −$124 -99%
Counter-Strike: CHAOS vs Alpha Dominion Nation (BO3) - United21 Group Jun 18 $77 −$17 -22%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner Jun 18 $80 −$80 -100%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $133 −$78 -58%
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl Jun 18 $91 −$91 -100%
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $115 −$115 -100%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $140 −$140 -100%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $103 −$103 -100%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner Jun 18 $157 −$157 -100%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S Jun 18 $141 −$136 -97%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $136 −$136 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 18 $156 −$156 -100%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $440 −$440 -100%
Valorant: Division One vs Team Evictix (BO3) - VCL North America: Stag Jun 18 $60 +$60 +101%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo Jun 17 $159 +$91 +57%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $240 +$110 +46%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 3 Winner Jun 17 $39 +$51 +129%
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 - Map 2 Winner Jun 17 $43 +$27 +62%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $74 +$36 +49%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $142 +$78 +55%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 4 Winner Jun 17 $174 +$145 +83%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $220 +$100 +46%
Will Portugal reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $53 −$3 -7%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Jun 16 $173 +$177 +103%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $110 −$67 -61%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 16 $88 −$88 -100%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $234 −$234 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 16 $555 −$555 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $158 +$82 +52%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs MOUZ (+1.5) Jun 13 $62 −$62 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $78 −$78 -100%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $109 −$109 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $145 −$145 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $250 −$250 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $500 −$500 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $162 +$87 +54%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $130 +$90 +70%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $37 +$43 +114%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $536 +$82 +15%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $891 +$366 +41%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June? Jun 12 $71 +$5 +6%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? Jun 12 $26 +$11 +40%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? Jun 12 $79 +$36 +45%
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 12 $60 −$8 -13%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 12 $38 +$19 +50%
Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $106 +$11 +10%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $529 +$152 +29%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $27 −$27 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Map Handicap: AUR (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) BUY BetBoom Team 71¢ $264 1h
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - European Pro League BUY Infinite 50¢ $254 1h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China BUY Yakult Brothers 66¢ $35 2h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China BUY Yakult Brothers 66¢ $97 2h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 Academy 62¢ $124 7h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 Academy 62¢ $125 8h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 53¢ $75 19h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 42¢ $103 19h
Valorant: Division One vs Team Evictix (BO3) - VCL North America: Stag BUY Team Evictix 49¢ $60 19h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo BUY T1 Academy 63¢ $159 25h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner BUY T1 Academy 62¢ $157 26h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 Academy 67¢ $80 27h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 Academy 68¢ $240 28h
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl BUY K27 52¢ $32 29h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 4 Winner SELL Dplus KIA Challengers 100¢ $320 29h
Counter-Strike: CHAOS vs Alpha Dominion Nation (BO3) - United21 Group BUY Alpha Dominion Nation 64¢ $11 29h
Counter-Strike: CHAOS vs Alpha Dominion Nation (BO3) - United21 Group BUY Alpha Dominion Nation 64¢ $25 29h
Counter-Strike: CHAOS vs Alpha Dominion Nation (BO3) - United21 Group BUY Alpha Dominion Nation 64¢ $42 29h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 4 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 54¢ $174 30h
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 - Map 2 Winner BUY Nuclear TigeRES 61¢ $43 30h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 3 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 43¢ $39 31h
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl BUY K27 49¢ $60 31h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 2 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 67¢ $74 32h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 1 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 64¢ $142 32h
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score BUY No 57¢ $115 41h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $220 41h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 47¢ $11 42h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 41¢ $29 44h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 47¢ $5 44h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 47¢ $120 44h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $351.34 · official $353.18 (match) · 3500 history records