Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T07:03:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FC 0xfcfd…20a3 world 37 markets active 1h ago coverage 453d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$2 (-0%) realized −$2 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate47%17W / 19L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$30now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 54% −$3
other 16% +$1
politics 9% $0
crypto 9% $0
finance 6% $0
tech 2% $0
economics 2% $0
sports 2% $0
culture 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-10.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 8 -0.9% -10.3% 12% 0% -10.4%
≤90d 10 -0.7% -10.2% 20% 0% -10.2%
all 36 -1.0% -10.4% 47% 3% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.4% 3% -9.9%
10% -19.0% 3% -18.5%
15% -26.8% 0% -26.4%
20% -34.0% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.26 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.49 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

453d coverage
Net worth$30
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses17 / 19
Open positions1
Markets (closed)36 / 37
History coverage453d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 36 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? No 91¢ 91¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 23 $34 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $30 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 22 $12 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 27 $31 −$1 -2%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 26 $31 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 25 $32 −$2 -6%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 25 $19 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 25 $35 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 24 $32 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 23 $36 $0 +0%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 17 $1 $0 +1%
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 22 $1 $0 +22%
Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jul 22 $2 −$1 -41%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 27 $10 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $300 in May? Jun 02 $1 $0 +2%
Will 'Michael' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025? May 27 $10 $0 +0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2025 National League Championship? May 27 $21 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture Yunakivka before June? May 27 $3 $0 -6%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before June? May 26 $7 $0 -3%
Will Bitcoin dip to $90k in May? May 26 $10 $0 +0%
Will Trump announce Judy Shelton as next Fed Chair? May 25 $10 $0 +0%
Will Hubert Hurkacz win the 2025 French Open? May 24 $11 $0 -0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $200-250b in federal spending in 2025? May 21 $10 $0 +0%
Will Pacers vs. Nuggets be the 2025 NBA Finals matchup? May 20 $9 $0 +5%
Will the candidate from the New Reform Party win the South Korean Pres May 18 $2 $0 -15%
Will Johannes Kaiser win the Chilean presidential election? May 18 $9 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before June? May 18 $9 $0 -0%
Will San Marino finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 10? May 17 $10 $0 +1%
Will Elon tweet 325–349 times May 9–16? May 14 $12 $0 +1%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on June 30? May 13 $11 $0 +1%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 World Series? May 12 $15 $0 +2%
Will Victor Ponta win the most votes in the 1st round of the Romanian Apr 05 $15 $0 +0%
Bitcoin above $86,000 on April 4? Apr 04 $15 $0 +1%
Will Trump pardon Steve Bannon in his first 100 days? Apr 03 $15 $0 +0%
Will Ken Paxton be a member of the Trump administration? Apr 02 $14 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum hit $2,600.00 again by March 31? Mar 28 $14 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $30 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $34 7h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $34 9h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $30 23h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $30 27h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 16¢ $1 32h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 16¢ $11 32h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 16¢ $12 34h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 56¢ $4 27d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 56¢ $26 28d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 57¢ $26 28d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 57¢ $5 28d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? SELL No 96¢ $31 28d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? BUY No 96¢ $31 28d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 51¢ $31 29d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 54¢ $16 29d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 54¢ $16 29d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 28¢ $11 29d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 28¢ $9 29d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 28¢ $10 29d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 28¢ $9 29d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $35 29d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $35 29d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 87¢ $11 30d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 87¢ $21 30d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 87¢ $32 30d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $36 31d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $36 31d
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? SELL Yes $0 337d
Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025? SELL Yes $0 337d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $29.91 · official $29.91 (match) · 110 history records