Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T18:49:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FC 0xfcf9…229e sports 23 markets active 2h ago coverage 9d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$213 (-35%) realized −$204 · open −$9
Gross ROI / mkt -53% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -59% what you keep after slip
Net edge-59%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate20%3W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day3.1pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$249now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$52
7 days−$210
14 days−$210
30 days−$210
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$219
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-57.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -52.7% -57.2% 20% 20% -64.4%
≤30d 15 -52.7% -57.2% 20% 20% -64.4%
≤90d 15 -52.7% -57.2% 20% 20% -64.4%
all 15 -52.7% -57.2% 20% 20% -64.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -57.2% 20% -64.4%
10% -61.3% 20% -67.8%
15% -65.1% 20% -70.9%
20% -68.5% 13% -73.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 48% · top 2 75% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -61% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -53% · $-wt -61% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -65% → late -42% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$20 · ×0.5 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.13 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$249
Realized−$204
Unrealized−$9
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses3 / 12
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions8
Markets (closed)15 / 23
History coverage9d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day3.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 15 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Norway vs. France: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Under 53¢ 51¢ $40 $39 −$2 (-4%)
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: Both Teams to Score Yes 36¢ 36¢ $39 $39 −$1 (-1%)
Egypt vs. IR Iran: Egypt O/U 0.5 Under 32¢ 30¢ $40 $39 −$2 (-5%)
New Zealand vs. Belgium: New Zealand O/U 0.5 Over 45¢ 44¢ $39 $38 −$1 (-2%)
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Over 44¢ 40¢ $39 $36 −$3 (-8%)
Paraguay vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score No 56¢ 57¢ $20 $20 +$1 (+3%)
New Zealand vs. Belgium: Both Teams to Score Yes 42¢ 40¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-4%)
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score Yes 39¢ 36¢ $20 $18 −$1 (-7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Panama vs. Croatia: Panama O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $40 −$40 -100%
France vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $40 −$12 -29%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $20 −$20 -100%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $20 −$20 -100%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $20 +$8 +40%
Tunisia vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $20 +$15 +73%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $40 −$8 -20%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $20 −$20 -100%
Canada vs. Qatar: Qatar O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $20 −$20 -100%
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $20 −$20 -100%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $20 −$20 -100%
Halle Open: Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Daniel Altmaier Jun 18 $5 +$8 +146%
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 18 $20 −$20 -100%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Tampa Bay Rays vs. Lo Jun 18 $20 −$20 -100%
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5) Jun 18 $20 −$20 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
New Zealand vs. Belgium: New Zealand O/U 0.5 BUY Over 45¢ $40 1h
Norway vs. France: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 53¢ $34 1h
Norway vs. France: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 53¢ $6 1h
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 44¢ $40 4h
Egypt vs. IR Iran: Egypt O/U 0.5 BUY Under 32¢ $0 17h
Egypt vs. IR Iran: Egypt O/U 0.5 BUY Under 32¢ $17 17h
Egypt vs. IR Iran: Egypt O/U 0.5 BUY Under 32¢ $24 17h
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 36¢ $40 19h
Panama vs. Croatia: Panama O/U 1.5 BUY Over 18¢ $40 20h
Paraguay vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score BUY No 56¢ $20 31h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 48¢ $20 6d
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Tampa Bay Rays vs. Lo BUY Yes 41¢ $20 7d
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5) BUY Atlanta Braves 37¢ $18 7d
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5) BUY Atlanta Braves 38¢ $2 7d
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves BUY Atlanta Braves 50¢ $20 7d
Canada vs. Qatar: Qatar O/U 0.5 BUY Over 46¢ $20 7d
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 40¢ $20 7d
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 31¢ $20 8d
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 48¢ $20 8d
France vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score BUY No 70¢ $20 8d
France vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 31¢ $20 8d
New Zealand vs. Belgium: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 42¢ $20 8d
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 39¢ $20 8d
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score BUY No 62¢ $20 8d
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score BUY No 61¢ $20 8d
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 39¢ $20 9d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score BUY No 71¢ $20 9d
Tunisia vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY No 57¢ $20 9d
Halle Open: Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Daniel Altmaier BUY Daniel Altmaier 40¢ $5 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $248.62 · official $248.62 (match) · 46 history records