Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T10:55:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
FC 0xfcf6…294e other 9 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$3 (+0%) realized +$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR78%break-even
Win rate78%7W / 2L
Drawdown26%max
Avg bet$112per market
Trades / day27.0pace
Kalshi-fit0%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 100% +$330
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +78%
net ROI/market (all)+1.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +12.1% +1.4% 78% 78% +20.3%
≤30d 9 +12.1% +1.4% 78% 78% +20.3%
≤90d 9 +12.1% +1.4% 78% 78% +20.3%
all 9 +12.1% +1.4% 78% 78% +20.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover27.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +1.4% 78% +20.3%
10% ← realistic here -8.3% 78% +8.8%
15% -17.2% 67% -1.8%
20% -25.3% 22% -11.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 60% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +33% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +12% · $-wt +33% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
3.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$59 vs −$42 · ×1.41 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×4.93 per $1 lost it wins $4.93
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)78%
Wins / losses7 / 2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)9 / 9
History coverage1d
Avg bet$112
Trades / day27.0
Drawdown26%
Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 9 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
BNB Up or Down - June 20, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 20 $51 +$15 +29%
BNB Up or Down - June 20, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 20 $51 +$19 +37%
BNB Up or Down - June 20, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 20 $9 +$5 +62%
BNB Up or Down - June 20, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 20 $302 +$166 +55%
BNB Up or Down - June 20, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 20 $45 −$44 -98%
BNB Up or Down - June 20, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 20 $41 −$40 -98%
BNB Up or Down - June 20, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 20 $139 +$65 +47%
BNB Up or Down - June 20, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 20 $163 +$62 +38%
BNB Up or Down - June 20, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 20 $204 +$82 +40%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
BNB Up or Down - June 20, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $26 1h
BNB Up or Down - June 20, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $25 1h
BNB Up or Down - June 20, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $25 1h
BNB Up or Down - June 20, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $26 1h
BNB Up or Down - June 20, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $9 1h
BNB Up or Down - June 20, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $25 1h
BNB Up or Down - June 20, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $26 1h
BNB Up or Down - June 20, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $51 1h
BNB Up or Down - June 20, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $26 1h
BNB Up or Down - June 20, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $25 1h
BNB Up or Down - June 20, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $26 1h
BNB Up or Down - June 20, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $41 1h
BNB Up or Down - June 20, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $41 1h
BNB Up or Down - June 20, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $41 1h
BNB Up or Down - June 20, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $5 1h
BNB Up or Down - June 20, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $40 1h
BNB Up or Down - June 20, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $41 1h
BNB Up or Down - June 20, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $41 1h
BNB Up or Down - June 20, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $41 1h
BNB Up or Down - June 20, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $41 1h
BNB Up or Down - June 20, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $17 1h
BNB Up or Down - June 20, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $40 1h
BNB Up or Down - June 20, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $41 1h
BNB Up or Down - June 20, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $41 1h
BNB Up or Down - June 20, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $41 1h
BNB Up or Down - June 20, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $101 1h
BNB Up or Down - June 20, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $103 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 34 history records