Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T18:21:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
FC 0xfcf2…9ada other 178 markets active 1h ago coverage 702d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$46 (+1%) realized +$69 · open −$23
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate39%65W / 103L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$51per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$512now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$70
14 days+$59
30 days+$131
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 43% −$378
other 32% +$730
economics 9% +$59
culture 7% −$288
sports 5% −$112
tech 3% −$77
world 1% −$71
finance 0% −$33
crypto 0% −$10
weather 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-27.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +66.3% +50.5% 100% 100% +42.5%
≤30d 13 -11.9% -20.3% 54% 54% +22.2%
≤90d 15 -23.1% -30.4% 47% 47% +9.0%
all 168 -19.8% -27.5% 39% 30% -11.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -27.5% 30% -11.2%
10% -34.4% 22% -19.7%
15% -40.7% 19% -27.5%
20% -46.5% 14% -34.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +20% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -20% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late -30% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$30 vs −$20 · ×1.47 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

702d coverage
Net worth$512
Realized+$69
Unrealized−$23
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses65 / 103
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions10
Markets (closed)168 / 178
History coverage702d
Avg bet$51
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 168 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? Yes 89¢ 90¢ $185 $187 +$2 (+1%)
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House No 82¢ 81¢ $140 $140 −$0 (-0%)
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? No 83¢ 94¢ $91 $103 +$12 (+13%)
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $40 $38 −$2 (-6%)
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $9 $14 +$4 (+45%)
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $12 $11 −$1 (-6%)
Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $14 $10 −$4 (-30%)
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $7 $5 −$2 (-26%)
Will Portugal be eliminated in the Final of the World Cup? Yes 8¢ 10¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+25%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June? Yes 29¢ 0¢ $33 $0 −$33 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? Jun 21 $33 +$54 +164%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Jun 19 $54 +$10 +18%
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 19 $34 +$6 +17%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5 +$5 +93%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $26 +$15 +57%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $25 −$25 -99%
Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary el Jun 11 $170 +$91 +53%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 2-8? Jun 07 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 04 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $4 −$4 -99%
Will Aryna Sabalenka be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? May 30 $3 +$1 +42%
Will Trump attend his son's wedding? May 22 $37 −$36 -97%
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? May 22 $10 −$9 -92%
Will Trump say "Martin Luther King" in January? Mar 20 $0 $0 -100%
Maduro mugshot released by Monday? Mar 20 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-01-25? Mar 20 $6 −$6 -100%
Will "End of Beginning - Djo" be the #1 song on US Spotify this week? Mar 20 $34 −$34 -100%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-03-07? Mar 20 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Jasmine Crockett be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Texas? Mar 20 $21 −$14 -69%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-02-12? Mar 20 $44 −$44 -100%
Will I Just Might - Bruno Mars be the #1 song on US Spotify this week? Mar 20 $8 −$8 -100%
Will "Golden - HUNTR/X" be the #1 song on US Spotify this week? Mar 20 $16 −$16 -100%
Will "Man I Need - Olivia Dean" be the #1 song on US Spotify this week Mar 20 $44 −$44 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-03-01? Mar 03 $16 +$14 +85%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-02-22? Feb 22 $30 +$16 +52%
Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Feb 22 $61 −$61 -100%
Seahawks vs. Patriots Feb 09 $17 +$8 +45%
Will West Ham United FC win on 2026-01-31? Feb 01 $6 +$4 +54%
U.S. Government Funding Lapse on January 31? Jan 31 $56 +$88 +156%
Will Apple release iPhone 18 in 2026? Jan 24 $61 −$5 -8%
Will Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jan 11 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Vladimir Putin win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jan 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jan 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jan 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jan 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jan 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jan 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jan 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Will António Guterres win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jan 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jan 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jan 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jan 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jan 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jan 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jan 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 Jan 11 $9 −$9 -100%
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jan 11 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jan 11 $9 −$9 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House BUY No 81¢ $41 1h
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 95¢ $52 4d
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House BUY No 82¢ $100 5d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 1¢ $42 5d
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 78¢ $35 6d
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 42¢ $24 6d
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 42¢ $8 6d
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 42¢ $1 6d
Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 1¢ $5 6d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $5 11d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 47¢ $5 11d
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 11d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $26 11d
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL No 94¢ $26 11d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $25 11d
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL No 94¢ $25 11d
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY Yes 89¢ $65 11d
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY Yes 89¢ $6 12d
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY Yes 88¢ $114 17d
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 33¢ $33 17d
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 2-8? BUY No 5¢ $5 17d
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY Yes 85¢ $34 17d
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 2-8? BUY No 5¢ $0 17d
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 2-8? BUY No 5¢ $0 17d
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 2-8? BUY No 5¢ $0 17d
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 2-8? BUY No 5¢ $0 17d
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 2-8? BUY No 5¢ $0 17d
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 2-8? BUY No 5¢ $0 17d
Will Portugal be eliminated in the Final of the World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $3 18d
Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary el SELL Yes 95¢ $95 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $511.51 · official $511.52 (match) · 848 history records