Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T09:18:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FC 0xfcf1…e171 world 40 markets active 2h ago coverage 470d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$7 (+1%) realized +$7 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate54%21W / 18L
Drawdown20%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$50now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$2
14 days+$2
30 days+$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 65% +$5
other 17% +$1
politics 9% $0
weather 3% +$1
crypto 2% $0
culture 2% $0
finance 1% $0
sports 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-11.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +1.5% -8.2% 40% 0% -8.8%
≤30d 17 -5.2% -14.2% 47% 0% -8.8%
≤90d 17 -5.2% -14.2% 47% 0% -8.8%
all 39 -1.8% -11.2% 54% 0% -8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.2% 0% -8.8%
10% -19.7% 0% -17.6%
15% -27.4% 0% -25.5%
20% -34.5% 0% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×1.15 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.68 per $1 lost it wins $2.68
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

470d coverage
Net worth$50
Realized+$7
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses21 / 18
Open positions1
Markets (closed)39 / 40
History coverage470d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown20%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 39 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 83¢ 83¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 21 $82 −$2 -2%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 19 $29 $0 +0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 19 $37 +$3 +8%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $44 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $53 +$1 +1%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 04 $38 +$1 +2%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 02 $18 $0 -0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 02 $34 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 01 $40 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 01 $25 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 31 $86 +$2 +2%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 30 $3 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 29 $28 −$1 -4%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 29 $39 +$1 +3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 28 $49 $0 -1%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 27 $16 $0 +1%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 26 $45 +$1 +2%
Will the Houston Texans win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 04 $16 $0 -1%
Will Elon tweet 210–224 times June 27–July 4? Aug 10 $6 $0 +1%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the first leader out in 2025? Jul 05 $15 $0 +3%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 03 $15 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 1k-2.5k Gold Cards in 2025? Jul 02 $15 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump be the first leader out in 2025? Jul 02 $10 $0 +1%
Will Trump sell 5k-10k Gold Cards in 2025? Jul 02 $15 $0 +0%
Will Eduardo del Castillo win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Jul 01 $16 $0 +0%
Will the Conservative Party win the Canadian election by 9-12%? Jun 24 $15 $0 +3%
Will Ethereum dip to $1200 in May? Jun 02 $1 $0 +1%
Will the Jaguars draft Shedeur Sanders in the 2025 NFL Draft? Apr 27 $15 $0 +1%
Will Susan Crawford win by 8-10%? Apr 17 $17 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with Lai Ching-te in his first 100 days? Apr 15 $17 $0 -0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2025? Apr 14 $17 $0 +0%
Will Thunderbolts be the top grossing movie of 2025? Apr 11 $17 $0 +0%
Will global temperature increase by between 1.37-1.41ºC in March 2025? Apr 11 $16 $0 +1%
Will Trump's approval rating be less than 46.0% on March 28? Mar 30 $17 −$1 -4%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the Eastern Conference? Mar 29 $16 $0 -0%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by Friday? Mar 23 $17 $0 +1%
Ethereum above $2,200 on March 14? Mar 20 $17 $0 +1%
Will Club Brugge or Aston Villa advance in the UCL Round of 16? Mar 13 $15 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in London be between 59-60°F on March 8? Mar 11 $16 $0 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 83¢ $50 2h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL No 85¢ $20 8h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL No 85¢ $26 8h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY No 86¢ $17 9h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY No 86¢ $20 9h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY No 86¢ $9 9h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL Yes 14¢ $9 10h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 12h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL No 84¢ $17 18h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL No 84¢ $9 18h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY No 84¢ $26 22h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 86¢ $53 25h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 86¢ $53 27h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $29 41h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $29 43h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 89¢ $14 45h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 89¢ $26 45h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 82¢ $37 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $44 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $6 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $38 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $54 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $53 3d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 14¢ $6 3d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 14¢ $5 3d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 14¢ $11 3d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL Yes $0 16d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 31¢ $3 18d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 31¢ $3 18d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 31¢ $14 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $49.80 · official $49.80 (match) · 139 history records