Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T10:19:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
FC 0xfcef…ed6c crypto 431 markets active 2h ago coverage 46d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 46d only
✗ bot/MM pace (70 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$16,963 (+40%) realized +$16,963 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate50%215W / 216L
Whale WR75%big bets
Drawdown14%max
Avg bet$99per market
Trades / day69.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,072
7 days−$399
14 days+$188
30 days+$5,306
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$14,006
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (70 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)+2.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 61 -8.6% -17.3% 46% 43% -14.6%
≤30d 250 +6.1% -4.0% 49% 44% +10.9%
≤90d 431 +13.4% +2.6% 50% 46% +21.0%
all 431 +13.4% +2.6% 50% 46% +21.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover69.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +2.6% 46% +21.0%
10% ← realistic here -7.3% 43% +9.5%
15% -16.2% 41% -1.1%
20% -24.4% 36% -10.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +34% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +13% · $-wt +34% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 75% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +17% → late +10% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
6.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$132 vs −$67 · ×1.98 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.97 per $1 lost it wins $1.97
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

46d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$16,963
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses215 / 216
Whale WR (big bets)75%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)431 / 431
History coverage46d ⚠
Avg bet$99
Trades / day69.9
Drawdown14%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 431 Trades
no open positions (144 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 18 $191 −$183 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 18 $147 +$83 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 18 $723 −$709 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 18 $124 +$223 +180%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 18 $144 +$74 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 17 $219 +$245 +112%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 17 $132 −$126 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 17 $73 −$68 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 17 $86 +$162 +187%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 17 $15 +$7 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 17 $8 −$5 -63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 17 $27 −$12 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 17 $385 −$357 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 16 $74 +$48 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$4 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 16 $76 −$74 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 16 $320 −$298 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 16 $9 +$3 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 16 $86 −$83 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 16 $60 +$40 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 15 $16 +$7 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 15 $31 −$30 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 15 $17 −$16 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$3 +252%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 15 $152 +$10 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 15 $23 −$22 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 15 $84 −$80 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 15 $14 −$14 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 14 $67 −$63 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 14 $17 +$17 +99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 14 $14 −$14 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 14 $46 +$40 +87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 14 $13 −$12 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 14 $71 −$69 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 14 $20 +$10 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 14 $29 −$28 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 14 $15 +$13 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 13 $239 −$228 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 13 $26 −$24 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 13 $161 −$151 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 13 $147 +$159 +108%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 13 $60 −$57 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 13 $17 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 13 $12 −$12 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 13 $93 −$89 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 18¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 19¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $24 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET SELL Up 33¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $33 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $53 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $57 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $67 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $18 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $62 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $79 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $18 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $81 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $14 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $81 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $22 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $76 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $48 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $13 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $71 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $21 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $62 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $62 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $62 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $13 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $13 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $2 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records