trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 11 | -43.1% | -48.5% | 27% | 18% | +33.7% |
| ≤30d | 11 | -43.1% | -48.5% | 27% | 18% | +33.7% |
| ≤90d | 11 | -43.1% | -48.5% | 27% | 18% | +33.7% |
| all | 11 | -43.1% | -48.5% | 27% | 18% | +33.7% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -48.5% | 18% | +33.7% |
| 10% | -53.4% | 18% | +20.9% |
| 15% | -57.9% | 18% | +9.2% |
| 20% | -62.0% | 18% | -1.5% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will France win on 2026-06-30? | Yes | 77¢ | 76¢ | $50 | $50 | −$0 (-1%) |
| Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? | Yes | 46¢ | 44¢ | $50 | $48 | −$2 (-3%) |
| Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 23¢ | 23¢ | $10 | $10 | −$0 (-0%) |
| Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? | Yes | 19¢ | 18¢ | $10 | $10 | −$0 (-3%) |
| Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-29? | Yes | 9¢ | 8¢ | $10 | $9 | −$1 (-6%) |
| Exact Score: South Africa 1 - 0 Canada? | Yes | 7¢ | 6¢ | $10 | $9 | −$1 (-7%) |
| Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? | Yes | 13¢ | 15¢ | $2 | $2 | +$0 (+16%) |
| Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by August 31? | No | 6¢ | 6¢ | $1 | $1 | +$0 (+5%) |
| Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | Yes | 1¢ | 1¢ | $1 | $1 | −$0 (-4%) |
| Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 31? | No | 9¢ | 8¢ | $1 | $1 | −$0 (-5%) |
| Will Malaysia recognize Israel by December 31? | Yes | 5¢ | 4¢ | $1 | $1 | −$0 (-10%) |
| Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by December 31? | No | 2¢ | 2¢ | $1 | $1 | −$0 (-32%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? | Jun 28 | $101 | +$80 | +79% |
| Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | Jun 26 | $2 | $0 | +7% |
| Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? | Jun 26 | $5 | −$5 | -98% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET | Jun 26 | $1 | +$1 | +52% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET | Jun 26 | $2 | −$2 | -96% |
| Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | Jun 25 | $2 | $0 | -0% |
| Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 3.5 | Jun 25 | $4 | −$3 | -98% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET | Jun 25 | $3 | $0 | -11% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET | Jun 25 | $2 | −$1 | -48% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET | Jun 25 | $1 | −$1 | -94% |
| Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? | Jun 25 | $7 | −$7 | -99% |