trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will United States win on 2026-06-12? | Jun 12 | $20 | −$2 | -11% |
| Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? | Jun 12 | $20 | −$2 | -10% |
| Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on | Jun 12 | $22 | −$2 | -8% |
| Market | side | price | size | when |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will United States win on 2026-06-12? | SELL Yes | 45¢ | $18 | 1h |
| Will United States win on 2026-06-12? | BUY Yes | 46¢ | $20 | 1h |
| Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? | SELL Yes | 52¢ | $18 | 1h |
| Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? | BUY Yes | 53¢ | $20 | 1h |
| Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on | SELL Yes | 94¢ | $20 | 1h |
| Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on | BUY Yes | 96¢ | $22 | 1h |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 3 | -9.6% | -18.2% | 0% | 0% | -18.2% |
| ≤30d | 3 | -9.6% | -18.2% | 0% | 0% | -18.2% |
| ≤90d | 3 | -9.6% | -18.2% | 0% | 0% | -18.2% |
| all | 3 | -9.6% | -18.2% | 0% | 0% | -18.2% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -18.2% | 0% | -18.2% |
| 10% | -26.1% | 0% | -26.0% |
| 15% | -33.2% | 0% | -33.2% |
| 20% | -39.8% | 0% | -39.7% |