Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T01:43:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
FC 0xfced…03d9 weather 621 markets active 1h ago coverage 184d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 184d only
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$2,250 (+11%) realized +$2,249 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -0% what you keep after slip
Net edge-0%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate39%240W / 379L
Drawdown10%max
Avg bet$32per market
Trades / day15.0pace
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$1,999now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$34
14 days+$35
30 days+$37
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 95% +$1,908
other 2% +$133
world 2% −$10
politics 0% −$12
crypto 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)+8.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -10.1% -18.7% 69% 8% -9.0%
≤30d 46 -5.0% -14.0% 59% 26% -9.1%
≤90d 207 +8.8% -1.6% 32% 21% -1.4%
all 619 +19.5% +8.1% 39% 28% +0.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +8.1% 28% +0.2%
10% -2.2% 24% -9.3%
15% -11.7% 21% -18.1%
20% -20.3% 18% -26.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
28% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +20% · $-wt +12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +28% → late +11% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$5 · ×3.01 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.06 per $1 lost it wins $2.06
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

184d coverage
Net worth$1,999
Realized+$2,249
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses240 / 379
Open positions1
Markets (closed)619 / 621
History coverage184d ⚠
Avg bet$32
Trades / day15.0
Drawdown10%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 619 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on June 15? No 100¢ 100¢ $1,998 $1,999 +$1 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on June 14? Jun 15 $1,550 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 86°F or higher on Jun Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 82-83°F on Ju Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on June 13? Jun 13 $14 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 90-91°F on Ju Jun 11 $98 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on June 11? Jun 11 $399 +$5 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 15°C on June 11? Jun 11 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 11? Jun 11 $487 +$12 +3%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 16°C on June 12? Jun 11 $6 +$10 +162%
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on June 10? Jun 11 $1,998 +$2 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 10? Jun 10 $1,480 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June Jun 10 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 9? Jun 09 $275 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju Jun 08 $1 $0 +4%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on June 7? Jun 07 $424 +$2 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 24°C on June 7? Jun 06 $6 −$1 -16%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on May 30? Jun 01 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on May 29? May 29 $7 −$1 -20%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on May 29? May 29 $36 −$17 -47%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 23°C on May 28? May 27 $2 −$1 -55%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 84°F or higher on May May 27 $100 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ma May 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ma May 26 $100 +$4 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 68-69°F on May 27? May 26 $5 +$5 +102%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on May 25? May 26 $87 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 78-79°F on May 25? May 25 $8 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on May 25? May 25 $0 $0 +27%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on May 26? May 25 $28 −$16 -57%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on May 26? May 24 $10 +$1 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C or higher on May 24? May 24 $12 −$12 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on May 24? May 24 $97 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on May 24? May 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on May 24? May 24 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on May 24? May 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on May 24? May 24 $90 −$1 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 35°C on May 23? May 23 $60 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C or higher on May 22? May 23 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on May 23? May 21 $11 +$5 +40%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 16°C or higher on May 19? May 20 $9 +$8 +91%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C or higher on May 19? May 20 $3 +$2 +91%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on May 19? May 20 $10 +$9 +88%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C or higher on May 19? May 20 $3 +$2 +91%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 24°C or higher on May 19? May 20 $25 +$5 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 26°C or higher on May 19? May 19 $3 +$2 +93%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C or higher on May 19? May 19 $7 +$8 +120%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on May 20? May 19 $35 +$3 +10%
Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping? May 15 $0 $0 -4%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 5°C on May 15? May 13 $30 +$4 +15%
Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15? May 12 $9 +$1 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on May 11? May 11 $0 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $1,998 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $95 24h
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $1,445 25h
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $10 25h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 13? SELL Yes 2¢ $10 2d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 13? SELL Yes 2¢ $10 2d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 13? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 2d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $1,996 2d
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on June 13? SELL No 99¢ $14 2d
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on June 13? BUY No 99¢ $12 2d
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on June 13? BUY No 99¢ $2 2d
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 82-83°F on Ju BUY Yes 0¢ $0 3d
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 82-83°F on Ju BUY Yes 0¢ $0 3d
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 82-83°F on Ju BUY Yes 0¢ $0 3d
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 86°F or higher on Jun BUY Yes 1¢ $1 3d
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 86°F or higher on Jun BUY Yes 1¢ $0 3d
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 86°F or higher on Jun BUY Yes 1¢ $0 3d
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 86°F or higher on Jun BUY Yes 1¢ $0 3d
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 90-91°F on Ju BUY Yes 97¢ $97 4d
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 90-91°F on Ju BUY No 1¢ $1 4d
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on June 11? SELL No 100¢ $255 4d
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on June 11? SELL No 100¢ $150 4d
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on June 11? BUY No 98¢ $399 4d
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 15°C on June 11? SELL No 100¢ $50 4d
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 15°C on June 11? BUY No 100¢ $50 4d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 11? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 4d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 11? BUY Yes 1¢ $4 4d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 11? BUY No 96¢ $96 4d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 11? BUY No 96¢ $273 4d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 11? BUY No 96¢ $77 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,999.00 · official $1,999.00 (match) · 3430 history records