Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T06:20:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

FC 0xfce9…c2d6 crypto 11 markets active 0h ago coverage 8d

RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died

Total PnL −$80 (-17%) realized −$80 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +68% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +46% what you keep after slip

Net edge+46%after slip

Net WR55%break-even

Win rate64%7W / 4L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$42per market

Trades / day3.8pace

Kalshi-fit100%portable

Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 8d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +55%

net ROI/market (all)+52.3%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	11	+68.4%	+52.3%	64%	55%	-34.7%
≤30d	11	+68.4%	+52.3%	64%	55%	-34.7%
≤90d	11	+68.4%	+52.3%	64%	55%	-34.7%
all	11	+68.4%	+52.3%	64%	55%	-34.7%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover3.8 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to20%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+52.3%	55%	-34.7%
10%	+37.8%	45%	-41.0%
15%	+24.5%	27%	-46.7%
20%	+12.3%	18%	-51.9%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 89% · top 2 97% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -28% edge died — 90d negative

Fragile wins

14% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +68% · $-wt -28% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions

Win / loss size

+$31 vs −$87 · ×0.36 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.63 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage

Net worth$0

Realized−$80

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)64%

Wins / losses7 / 4

Open positions0

Markets (closed)11 / 11

History coverage8d

Avg bet$42

Trades / day3.8

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 0 History 11 Trades

no open positions

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET	Jun 18	$1	$0	+34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET	Jun 18	$2	+$1	+37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET	Jun 18	$1	$0	+32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET	Jun 18	$46	−$46	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET	Jun 18	$30	+$5	+18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET	Jun 18	$21	+$18	+85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET	Jun 18	$10	+$1	+8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET	Jun 18	$208	−$208	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET	Jun 18	$12	−$12	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET	Jun 18	$21	+$194	+914%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect	Jun 18	$107	−$82	-76%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET	BUY Up	73¢	$1	23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET	BUY Down	80¢	$1	32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET	BUY Down	65¢	$1	33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET	SELL Up	92¢	$1	36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET	BUY Up	68¢	$1	39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET	BUY Down	12¢	$5	45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET	BUY Down	26¢	$5	45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET	BUY Down	77¢	$25	46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET	BUY Down	44¢	$5	47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET	BUY Down	63¢	$5	48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET	BUY Up	84¢	$25	50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET	BUY Up	84¢	$5	51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET	BUY Down	66¢	$5	57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET	BUY Down	55¢	$5	57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET	BUY Down	39¢	$5	57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET	BUY Down	57¢	$5	58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET	BUY Up	82¢	$5	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET	SELL Up	71¢	$5	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET	BUY Up	71¢	$5	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET	BUY Down	31¢	$103	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET	BUY Down	34¢	$105	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET	BUY Up	46¢	$12	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET	BUY Down	9¢	$5	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET	BUY Down	11¢	$5	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET	BUY Down	12¢	$5	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET	BUY Down	7¢	$5	2h
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect	SELL Yes	1¢	$26	2h
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect	BUY Yes	3¢	$10	7d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect	BUY Yes	3¢	$97	7d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 44 history records