Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T04:48:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
FC 0xfce8…e713 sports 20 markets active 1h ago coverage 5d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$493 (-11%) realized −$463 · open −$30
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +57% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +36% what you keep after slip
Net edge+36%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate47%8W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$234per market
Trades / day4.9pace
Fees−$78est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$495now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 80% −$112
other 11% −$48
world 9% −$400
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)+41.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 +56.7% +41.8% 47% 47% -21.2%
≤30d 17 +56.7% +41.8% 47% 47% -21.2%
≤90d 17 +56.7% +41.8% 47% 47% -21.2%
all 17 +56.7% +41.8% 47% 47% -21.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +41.8% 47% -21.2%
10% +28.2% 47% -28.8%
15% +15.8% 41% -35.6%
20% +4.5% 41% -41.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 54% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +57% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +117% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$272 vs −$301 · ×0.9 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$495
Realized−$463
Unrealized−$30
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses8 / 9
Est. fees paid−$78
Open positions3
Markets (closed)17 / 20
History coverage5d
Avg bet$234
Trades / day4.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 17 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score Yes 45¢ 42¢ $200 $187 −$13 (-7%)
Austria vs. Jordan: Jordan O/U 0.5 Over 50¢ 42¢ $200 $168 −$32 (-16%)
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Over 42¢ 47¢ $125 $140 +$15 (+12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Iraq vs. Norway: Iraq O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $204 +$337 +165%
Iraq vs. Norway: Iraq O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $204 −$200 -98%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $205 −$200 -98%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $203 −$200 -98%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $205 +$106 +52%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $407 −$400 -98%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $203 −$106 -52%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $204 +$337 +165%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $203 +$205 +101%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $205 −$200 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $102 −$100 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $204 −$200 -98%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $1,122 −$1,100 -98%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 13 $256 +$831 +325%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $102 +$103 +101%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 2 - 1 Czechia? Jun 12 $26 +$224 +874%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $101 +$34 +33%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 42¢ $127 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 45¢ $203 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: Jordan O/U 0.5 BUY Over 50¢ $203 1h
Iraq vs. Norway: Iraq O/U 1.5 BUY Over 35¢ $204 5h
Iraq vs. Norway: Iraq O/U 0.5 BUY Over 37¢ $204 6h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $205 6h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 49¢ $203 6h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 27¢ $311 8h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 17¢ $205 8h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 34¢ $204 26h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 45¢ $203 27h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 22¢ $64 27h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 22¢ $34 27h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 44¢ $203 27h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 37¢ $204 30h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $203 33h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 13¢ $205 33h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 1.5 BUY Over 29¢ $102 35h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 38¢ $102 37h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 38¢ $102 37h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 33¢ $1,122 3d
Spread: United States (-1.5) BUY United States 23¢ $256 4d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Hanwha Life Esports 49¢ $102 4d
Exact Score: Korea Republic 2 - 1 Czechia? BUY Yes 10¢ $26 5d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 93¢ $134 5d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $101 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $494.55 · official $494.55 (match) · 32 history records