Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T02:01:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

FC 0xfce7…40a4 sports 15 markets active 2h ago coverage 7d

TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL −$31 (-4%) realized −$28 · open −$3

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -29% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip

Net edge-36%after slip

Net WR31%break-even

Win rate31%4W / 9L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$46per market

Trades / day2.8pace

Fees−$10est.

Kalshi-fit67%portable

Net worth$97now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days$0

7 days−$8

14 days−$37

30 days−$37

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +31%

net ROI/market (all)-36.0%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	12	-23.4%	-30.7%	33%	33%	-10.9%
≤30d	13	-29.3%	-36.0%	31%	31%	-15.6%
≤90d	13	-29.3%	-36.0%	31%	31%	-15.6%
all	13	-29.3%	-36.0%	31%	31%	-15.6%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover2.8 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-36.0%	31%	-15.6%
10%	-42.1%	15%	-23.7%
15%	-47.7%	15%	-31.1%
20%	-52.8%	15%	-37.8%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 57% · top 2 97% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -29% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +14% → late -66% edge faded

Add-ons / DCA

1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$71 vs −$36 · ×1.99 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×0.88 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage

Net worth$97

Realized−$28

Unrealized−$3

Win rate (resolved)31%

Wins / losses4 / 9

Est. fees paid−$10

Open positions1

Markets (closed)13 / 15

History coverage7d

Avg bet$46

Trades / day2.8

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 13 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score	Yes	48¢	46¢	$100	$97	−$3 (-3%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Exact Score: United States 3 - 0 Australia?	Jun 19	$15	+$3	+21%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Australia?	Jun 19	$31	+$4	+14%
Exact Score: United States 3 - 1 Australia?	Jun 19	$31	−$30	-98%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Australia?	Jun 19	$31	−$30	-98%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw?	Jun 16	$31	−$30	-98%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw?	Jun 16	$31	−$30	-98%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw?	Jun 16	$31	−$30	-98%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw?	Jun 16	$31	−$30	-98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 15	$75	−$53	-71%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score	Jun 15	$61	−$60	-98%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca	Jun 15	$45	+$163	+360%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card)	Jun 15	$120	+$114	+95%
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai	Jun 14	$30	−$30	-98%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	48¢	$102	1h
Exact Score: United States 3 - 0 Australia?	SELL Yes	18¢	$19	2d
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Australia?	SELL Yes	24¢	$35	2d
Exact Score: United States 3 - 1 Australia?	BUY Yes	14¢	$31	2d
Exact Score: United States 3 - 0 Australia?	BUY Yes	14¢	$15	2d
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Australia?	BUY Yes	14¢	$31	2d
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Australia?	BUY Yes	20¢	$31	2d
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 AND Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5	BUY	10¢	$31	4d
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw?	BUY Yes	19¢	$31	5d
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw?	BUY Yes	21¢	$31	5d
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw?	BUY Yes	14¢	$31	5d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw?	BUY Yes	29¢	$31	5d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?	SELL Yes	20¢	$22	6d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	67¢	$75	6d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	27¢	$14	6d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	29¢	$47	6d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca	SELL Justin Gaethje	99¢	$209	6d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card)	SELL Ciryl Gane	99¢	$234	6d
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai	BUY Michael Chandler	20¢	$30	7d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card)	BUY Ciryl Gane	50¢	$120	7d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca	BUY Justin Gaethje	21¢	$45	7d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $96.87 · official $96.88 (match) · 21 history records