Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T07:43:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

FC
0xfce5…94da
crypto · 449 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$1,093 +10%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$1,100 · open −$8
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$53
Realized+$1,100
Unrealized−$8
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses226 / 222
Open positions1
Markets (closed)448 / 449
History coverage13d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day240.5
Drawdown68%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 1 History 448 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$12
7 days+$42
14 days+$1,100
30 days+$1,100
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Down 64¢ 56¢ $61 $53 −$8 (-13%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 13 $51 −$51 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 13 $174 −$121 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 13 $203 +$385 +190%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 13 $20 +$18 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 13 $62 +$76 +122%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 13 $25 +$38 +153%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 13 $56 +$35 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 13 $113 +$119 +106%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 13 $157 +$251 +160%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 13 $114 −$38 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 13 $407 −$154 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 13 $523 −$286 -55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 13 $89 −$89 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 13 $245 −$245 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 13 $125 +$168 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 13 $101 −$23 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 13 $25 +$35 +142%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 13 $34 −$34 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 13 $257 −$122 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 13 $65 +$76 +117%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 13 $92 −$51 -55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 13 $196 +$309 +158%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 13 $247 −$247 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 13 $189 +$175 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 13 $150 −$150 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 13 $211 −$69 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 13 $105 −$44 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$7 +163%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 13 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 13 $235 +$46 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 13 $246 +$165 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 13 $2 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 13 $15 +$9 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 13 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 13 $248 −$248 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 13 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 13 $72 +$140 +195%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 13 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 13 $33 +$63 +192%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 12 $3 +$2 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$5 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 12 $6 +$4 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 12 $3 +$2 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$2 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$5 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$5 +106%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 12 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 12 $6 +$4 +54%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 100% +$1,093
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $3 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $3 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $1 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $1 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $3 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $4 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $5 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $1 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $3 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $38 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Down 2¢ $1 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Down 2¢ $0 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Down 5¢ $1 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Down 5¢ $1 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Down 4¢ $0 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Down 4¢ $0 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Down 5¢ $1 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Down 2¢ $1 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Down 5¢ $0 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Down 5¢ $0 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Down 5¢ $1 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Down 5¢ $0 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Down 6¢ $1 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Down 7¢ $0 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Down 7¢ $0 4m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-5.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 206 +0.3% -9.3% 51% 51% -8.9%
≤30d 448 +4.5% -5.4% 50% 49% -1.0%
≤90d 448 +4.5% -5.4% 50% 49% -1.0%
all 448 +4.5% -5.4% 50% 49% -1.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover240.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -5.4% 49% -1.0%
10% ← realistic here -14.5% 48% -10.5%
15% -22.7% 46% -19.1%
20% -30.3% 44% -27.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $53.38 · official $57.23 · 3500 history records