Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T14:55:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FC 0xfce5…2971 politics 49 markets active 1h ago coverage 228d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$3 (-0%) realized −$7 · open +$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate6%3W / 44L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$69per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$83now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 53% −$4
sports 27% −$3
other 10% +$3
world 5% $0
culture 3% $0
crypto 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-18.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 1 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 3 -16.9% -24.8% 0% 0% -9.8%
all 47 -9.9% -18.4% 6% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.4% 0% -9.7%
10% -26.2% 0% -18.4%
15% -33.4% 0% -26.3%
20% -39.9% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 65% · top 2 83% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.82 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.06 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

228d coverage
Net worth$83
Realized−$7
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)6%
Wins / losses3 / 44
Open positions2
Markets (closed)47 / 49
History coverage228d
Avg bet$69
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 47 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $61 $60 −$0 (-0%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 15¢ $18 $22 +$4 (+24%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $159 $0 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 23 $78 $0 -0%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 12 $1 $0 -50%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 09 $80 $0 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 01 $79 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026? Feb 04 $77 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 04 $2 $0 -10%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 31 $1 $0 -10%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 28 $3 $0 -9%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 28 $77 $0 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 27 $75 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Wizards win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jan 25 $162 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Bulls win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jan 23 $81 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 20 $81 $0 -0%
Will Trump nominate no one before 2027? Jan 18 $81 $0 -0%
Will the Memphis Grizzlies win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jan 16 $80 $0 -0%
Will Eintracht Frankfurt win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jan 15 $1 $0 -50%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jan 14 $80 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets from January 6 to January 13, 2026? Jan 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will Leeds win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 12 $80 $0 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 12 $84 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 11 $79 $0 -0%
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 09 $82 $0 -0%
Will Olympiakos win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jan 08 $85 $0 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Jan 06 $80 $0 -0%
Will the Charlotte Hornets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jan 04 $1 $0 -35%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 04 $84 $0 -0%
Will Trump release more Epstein files by December 26? Dec 27 $82 $0 +0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Dec 24 $168 $0 -0%
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 Champions League? Dec 21 $83 $0 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 19 $83 $0 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 17 $85 $0 -0%
Will PSV win the 2025–26 Champions League? Dec 12 $81 $0 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 10 $83 $0 -0%
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Dec 10 $1 $0 -50%
Will Bournemouth win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Dec 07 $83 $0 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 05 $79 $0 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 03 $81 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Nov 30 $169 $0 -0%
Will Thunderbolts be the top grossing movie of 2025? Nov 24 $86 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from November 14 to November 21, 20 Nov 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Nov 20 $2 $0 -20%
Will the Utah Jazz win the 2026 NBA Finals? Nov 19 $87 $0 -0%
Will Aston Villa win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Nov 19 $1 $0 -25%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in November? Nov 13 $84 $0 +0%
Will Athletic Club win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 11 $87 $0 -0%
US x Venezuela military engagement by November 7? Nov 08 $85 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $61 1h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 15¢ $3 1h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $21 3d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $81 6d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $81 26d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $77 32d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $78 34d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $78 43d
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 43d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $78 105d
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 105d
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 107d
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $80 107d
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $80 111d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $79 114d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $79 118d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 140d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 143d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $77 144d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 144d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 146d
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 146d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 146d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $77 146d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $77 147d
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 147d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 148d
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 148d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $74 148d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $75 149d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $82.60 · official $82.60 (match) · 265 history records