Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T03:06:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
FC 0xfce4…8341 other 7 markets active 1h ago coverage 13d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$318 (+17%) realized +$302 · open +$16
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%2W / 4L
Drawdown54%max
Avg bet$265per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Kalshi-fit43%portable
Net worth$66now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 13d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 84% +$301
other 16% −$148
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-29.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -20.8% -28.3% 40% 40% -1.7%
≤30d 6 -22.2% -29.6% 33% 33% -2.6%
≤90d 6 -22.2% -29.6% 33% 33% -2.6%
all 6 -22.2% -29.6% 33% 33% -2.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -29.6% 33% -2.6%
10% -36.3% 0% -11.9%
15% -42.5% 0% -20.4%
20% -48.1% 0% -28.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 98% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -22% · $-wt +8% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$158 vs −$44 · ×3.55 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.77 per $1 lost it wins $1.77
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

13d coverage
Net worth$66
Realized+$302
Unrealized+$16
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses2 / 4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)6 / 7
History coverage13d
Avg bet$265
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown54%
Kalshi-fit43%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 6 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 22¢ $50 $66 +$16 (+31%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $149 −$144 -97%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $48 −$16 -33%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 25 $1,472 +$310 +21%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $52 −$3 -6%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 25 $35 +$5 +15%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 17 $49 −$14 -29%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 1¢ $45 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 3¢ $103 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 8¢ $32 33h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $1,782 34h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 5¢ $48 34h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $40 35h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 81¢ $35 9d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 5¢ $35 9d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 79¢ $1,472 11d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $48 12d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $52 12d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $52 12d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 7¢ $49 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $65.70 · official $65.70 (match) · 26 history records