Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T14:56:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

FC
0xfce1…c9bf
crypto · 1240 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$2,493 -5%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$2,285 · open −$191
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$128
Realized−$2,285
Unrealized−$191
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses242 / 989
Est. fees paid−$15
Open positions9
Markets (closed)1231 / 1240
History coverage54d
Avg bet$37
Trades / day44.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%
Chart Positions 9 History 1231 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3,366
7 days−$8,794
14 days+$2,369
30 days−$883
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 6¢ 3¢ $130 $67 −$64 (-49%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on June 12? Yes 21¢ 6¢ $65 $20 −$45 (-69%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $61,000 on June 12? Yes 4¢ 2¢ $35 $13 −$22 (-63%)
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 on June 12? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-21%)
Will Ethereum dip to $1,550 on June 12? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $10 $5 −$5 (-46%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 on June 12? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $10 $5 −$5 (-46%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 13? Yes 3¢ 1¢ $10 $4 −$6 (-57%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 12? No 5¢ 0¢ $44 $4 −$40 (-91%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 12? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $5 $1 −$4 (-75%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Up 24¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Down 18¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 11? No 3¢ 0¢ $42 $0 −$42 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Down 11¢ 0¢ $18 $0 −$18 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Up 19¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Up 19¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Up 7¢ 0¢ $13 $0 −$13 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Down 41¢ 0¢ $42 $0 −$42 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Up 6¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 on June 10? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Down 19¢ 0¢ $37 $0 −$37 (-100%)
Will Ethereum dip to $1,550 on June 10? Yes 16¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Down 34¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Up 16¢ 0¢ $35 $0 −$35 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Down 24¢ 0¢ $45 $0 −$45 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Down 54¢ 0¢ $45 $0 −$45 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 12 $33 −$32 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 12 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 12 $19 −$18 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 12 $22 −$21 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 11 $27 −$26 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 11 $21 −$20 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 11 $16 −$15 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 11 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 11 $85 −$85 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 11 $19 +$57 +303%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 11 $17 +$42 +249%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8AM ET Jun 11 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 11 $26 +$60 +229%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 11 $21 −$20 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +62%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 11? Jun 11 $36 −$33 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $77 −$72 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 11 $31 +$37 +118%
Will Bitcoin dip to $61,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $95 −$58 -61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 11 $51 −$51 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 11 $37 −$37 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 11 $84 −$84 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 11 $96 −$96 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 11 $92 −$92 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 11 $48 +$41 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 11 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 11 $42 −$42 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 11 $84 +$52 +62%
Will the price of Solana be above $60 on June 8? Jun 11 $42 −$42 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 11 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 11 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 11 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 11 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 11 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 11 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 11 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 11 $28 −$28 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 11 $34 −$34 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 11 $73 −$73 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 11 $84 −$84 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 9? Jun 11 $42 −$42 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 11 $115 −$115 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 11 $94 −$94 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 11 $74 −$74 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 11 $56 −$56 -100%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,550 on June 8? Jun 11 $32 −$32 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 11 $94 −$94 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 11 $132 −$132 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 93% −$1,109
other 4% −$703
sports 1% −$346
politics 1% −$132
weather 0% −$40
culture 0% −$69
finance 0% −$18
tech 0% −$41
world 0% −$18
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $21 1h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,550 on June 12? BUY Yes 2¢ $11 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on June 12? BUY Yes 26¢ $32 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $61,000 on June 12? BUY Yes 5¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 9¢ $9 5h
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL Yes 3¢ $9 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $6 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $16 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 15¢ $11 5h
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 on June 12? BUY Yes 3¢ $11 5h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 13? BUY Yes 3¢ $11 5h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 12? BUY Yes 1¢ $5 5h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 12? BUY No 5¢ $20 5h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 12? BUY No 5¢ $27 5h
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 on June 12? BUY Yes 1¢ $11 5h
Will Bitcoin dip to $61,000 on June 12? BUY Yes 3¢ $11 5h
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on June 12? BUY Yes 18¢ $37 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Down 27¢ $27 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $11 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $10 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $16 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $10 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $16 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 10¢ $11 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Down 22¢ $8 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $15 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 20¢ $11 26h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-24.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 419 -40.8% -46.5% 18% 18% -45.0%
≤30d 883 -11.1% -19.6% 20% 20% -15.7%
≤90d 1231 -16.7% -24.6% 20% 20% -17.5%
all 1231 -16.7% -24.6% 20% 20% -17.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover44.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -24.6% 20% -17.5%
10% ← realistic here -31.8% 19% -25.4%
15% -38.4% 19% -32.6%
20% -44.5% 19% -39.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $127.91 · official $127.03 (match) · 3500 history records