Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T23:48:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

FC
0xfce1…98e3
crypto · 244 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$2,109 -8%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$2,093 · open −$16
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$203
Realized−$2,093
Unrealized−$16
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses61 / 178
Whale WR (big bets)60%
Est. fees paid−$55
Open positions3
Markets (closed)239 / 244
History coverage115d
Avg bet$107
Trades / day7.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%
Chart Positions 3 History 239 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$52
7 days+$52
14 days−$53
30 days−$884
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
United States vs. Paraguay: United States O/U 0.5 Over 75¢ 76¢ $149 $151 +$2 (+1%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 50¢ 85¢ $21 $36 +$15 (+70%)
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 50¢ 85¢ $5 $8 +$3 (+70%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 50¢ 15¢ $21 $6 −$15 (-70%)
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 50¢ 15¢ $5 $2 −$3 (-70%)
Arsenal FC vs. Burnley FC: O/U 2.5 Over 44¢ 0¢ $55 $0 −$55 (-100%)
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-05-17? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Cho Kuk win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Christiaan Bezuidenhout win the 2026 PGA Championship? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Cho Eun-hee win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $98 on May 11? No 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will Park Hong-keun win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 13°C on May 11? No 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Denver be 61°F or below on May 18? No 1¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will Jeon Hyun-heui win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
DR Congo vs. Denmark: O/U 1.5 Over 69¢ 0¢ $141 $0 −$141 (-100%)
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 16°C on May 7? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $13 $0 −$13 (-100%)
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will Seo Young-kyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 12°C on May 11? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $155 $0 +0%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $101 +$36 +36%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $16 −$16 -99%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $10 +$16 +158%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Mexico O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $23 +$16 +70%
DR Congo vs. Denmark: O/U 1.5 Jun 03 $141 −$141 -100%
Haiti vs. New Zealand: O/U 1.5 Jun 03 $107 +$36 +34%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $760 on June 2? Jun 02 $1 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? May 27 $6 −$6 -100%
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? May 23 $115 −$115 -100%
FC Bayern München vs. VfB Stuttgart: Both Teams to Score May 23 $500 −$500 -100%
Will MrBeast's video get between 67 and 68 million views on week 1? May 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? May 23 $494 $0 -0%
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? May 22 $10 −$10 -96%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 22? May 21 $112 −$2 -2%
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by May 22? May 21 $17 $0 +1%
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by May 21? May 21 $15 $0 +0%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 27? May 21 $528 +$25 +5%
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? May 20 $10 $0 -1%
SC Freiburg vs. Aston Villa FC: Both Teams to Score May 20 $399 −$361 -91%
Will Cho Eun-hee win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 19 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Hong Ihk-pyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 19 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Cho Kuk win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 19 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Kang Hoon-sik win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 19 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Han Dong-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 19 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Park Hong-keun win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 19 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Seo Young-kyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 19 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Jeon Hyun-heui win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 19 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Ahn Cheol-soo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 19 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Park Yong-jin win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 19 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Na Kyung-won win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 19 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Park Ju-min win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 19 $1 −$1 -96%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $740 on May 19? May 19 $480 −$450 -94%
AFC Bournemouth vs. Manchester City FC: Both Teams to Score May 19 $269 +$153 +57%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $735 on May 19? May 19 $12 $0 +0%
Arsenal FC vs. Burnley FC: O/U 2.5 May 18 $55 −$55 -100%
Arsenal FC vs. Burnley FC: O/U 4.5 May 18 $708 +$44 +6%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $740 on May 18? May 18 $684 −$3 -0%
Will Real Betis Balompié win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $1 −$1 -97%
FC Barcelona vs. Real Betis Balompié: Both Teams to Score May 17 $45 +$103 +230%
Paris FC vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: Both Teams to Score May 17 $3 +$7 +266%
Will Al Ittihad Saudi Club win on 2026-04-10? May 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will "Iceman" - Drake debut week album sales be between 500k and 550k? May 17 $53 $0 -0%
Will Hellas Verona FC win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $57 +$50 +86%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Team Rey vs Bigetron MY by VIT (BO3) - MPL M May 17 $2 $0 +0%
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET May 16 $2 $0 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET May 16 $2 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be 61°F or below on May 18? May 16 $2 −$1 -70%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 56% −$843
sports 17% −$944
other 12% +$279
finance 8% −$470
crypto 6% +$16
economics 1% $0
politics 1% −$106
weather 0% −$40
culture 0% −$1
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
United States vs. Paraguay: United States O/U 0.5 BUY Over 75¢ $89 1h
United States vs. Paraguay: United States O/U 0.5 BUY Over 75¢ $60 1h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 62¢ $6 1h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 61¢ $5 1h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 61¢ $146 1h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 62¢ $3 1h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 61¢ $7 1h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 61¢ $29 1h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 61¢ $114 1h
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 AND Will United States win on 2026 BUY 34¢ $15 2h
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $137 2h
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 73¢ $101 3h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $16 16h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 38¢ $10 26h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? AND Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06- BUY 2¢ $9 26h
Mexico vs. South Africa: Mexico O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $40 26h
Mexico vs. South Africa: Mexico O/U 1.5 BUY Over 58¢ $23 31h
DR Congo vs. Denmark: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 69¢ $141 9d
Haiti vs. New Zealand: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 74¢ $107 9d
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $760 on June 2? SELL No 81¢ $1 10d
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $760 on June 2? BUY No 80¢ $1 10d
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? BUY Yes 0¢ $6 16d
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? BUY Yes 26¢ $70 20d
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? BUY Yes 29¢ $35 20d
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? BUY Yes 29¢ $7 20d
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? BUY Yes 29¢ $3 20d
FC Bayern München vs. VfB Stuttgart: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $8 20d
FC Bayern München vs. VfB Stuttgart: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $1 20d
FC Bayern München vs. VfB Stuttgart: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $7 20d
FC Bayern München vs. VfB Stuttgart: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $16 20d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-25.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +32.9% +20.2% 80% 60% +6.0%
≤30d 97 -17.1% -25.0% 21% 11% -19.8%
≤90d 214 -21.6% -29.1% 20% 10% -21.8%
all 239 -17.9% -25.7% 26% 13% -16.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover7.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.7% 13% -16.9%
10% -32.8% 10% -24.8%
15% -39.3% 7% -32.1%
20% -45.3% 5% -38.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $203.45 · official $227.45 · 1040 history records