Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T21:39:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
FC 0xfce0…6bde other 35 markets active 1h ago coverage 550d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$54 (+9%) realized +$54 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate3%1W / 34L
Drawdown1%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit54%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 84% +$54
other 12% $0
politics 4% $0
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-8.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 2 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 3 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
all 35 +0.9% -8.7% 3% 3% -1.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.7% 3% -1.7%
10% -17.5% 3% -11.1%
15% -25.4% 3% -19.7%
20% -32.7% 3% -27.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$54 vs −$0 · ×1710.87 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×90.05 per $1 lost it wins $90.05
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

550d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$54
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)3%
Wins / losses1 / 34
Open positions0
Markets (closed)35 / 35
History coverage550d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown1%
Kalshi-fit54%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 35 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 16 $5 $0 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 26 $5 $0 -0%
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 27 $6 $0 -0%
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 24 $1 $0 +0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 24 $1 $0 +0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 25 $12 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Browns win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 26 $12 $0 -0%
Will the Titans win the AFC Championship? Oct 05 $5 $0 -0%
Will the Arizona Cardinals win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 19 $1 $0 +0%
Will the Falcons win Super Bowl 2025? Sep 18 $0 $0 +0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2025 World Series? Aug 14 $5 $0 -0%
Will the Cardinals win the NFC Championship? Aug 12 $1 $0 +0%
Will the New York Giants win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 21 $6 $0 -0%
Will the Commanders win Super Bowl 2025? Jul 15 $1 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in July? Jul 09 $1 $0 -24%
Will the Miami Dolphins win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 14 $6 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Wizards win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $6 $0 -0%
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jun 07 $7 $0 +0%
Twins vs. Athletics Jun 06 $35 +$54 +156%
Will Bayer Leverkusen win the UEFA Champions League? Jun 05 $7 $0 -0%
Will PSV Eindhoven win the UEFA Champions League? Jun 05 $5 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2025 World Series? Jun 04 $1 $0 +0%
Will Luxembourg win Eurovision 2025? May 14 $7 $0 -0%
Will Benfica win the UEFA Champions League? May 14 $41 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2025? May 10 $1 $0 +0%
Will Australia win Eurovision 2025? May 08 $6 $0 -0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 08 $7 $0 +0%
Will Yoo Seong-min be elected the next president of South Korea? Apr 21 $6 $0 -0%
Will Inter Milan win the UEFA Champions League? Mar 28 $1 $0 -6%
Will Denmark win Eurovision 2025? Mar 25 $7 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Red Wings win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Feb 12 $1 $0 +0%
Newcastle United wins the Premier League? Jan 24 $7 $0 +0%
Aston Villa wins the Premier League? Jan 04 $1 $0 +0%
Will the Sacramento Kings win the 2025 NBA Finals? Dec 13 $365 $0 +0%
Will the Utah Jazz win the 2025 NBA Finals? Dec 13 $44 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $5 1h
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $5 1h
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $5 21d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $5 21d
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $6 50d
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $6 50d
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 112d
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 112d
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 112d
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 143d
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 143d
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 143d
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 99¢ $6 173d
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? BUY No 99¢ $6 173d
Will the Cleveland Browns win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 100¢ $6 202d
Will the Cleveland Browns win Super Bowl 2026? BUY No 100¢ $6 202d
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 231d
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 232d
Will the Titans win the AFC Championship? SELL No 100¢ $0 254d
Will the Titans win the AFC Championship? SELL No 100¢ $5 255d
Will the Titans win the AFC Championship? BUY No 100¢ $5 256d
Will the Arizona Cardinals win Super Bowl 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 270d
Will the Arizona Cardinals win Super Bowl 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 270d
Will the Arizona Cardinals win Super Bowl 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 270d
Will the Arizona Cardinals win Super Bowl 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 271d
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2025 World Series? SELL No 100¢ $5 306d
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2025 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $5 306d
Will the Cardinals win the NFC Championship? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 308d
Will the Cardinals win the NFC Championship? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 308d
Will the Cardinals win the NFC Championship? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 308d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 109 history records