Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T22:35:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
FC 0xfce0…f709 other 59 markets active 1h ago coverage 273d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$108 (+2%) realized +$102 · open +$6
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate93%53W / 4L
Drawdown23%max
Avg bet$83per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$369now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$8
30 days+$11
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 29% +$34
other 27% +$13
politics 24% +$47
crypto 8% −$4
culture 6% +$6
economics 5% +$11
sports 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-8.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -26.3% -33.3% 67% 33% -9.4%
≤30d 7 -7.3% -16.2% 86% 29% -8.3%
≤90d 15 -1.9% -11.2% 93% 13% -7.6%
all 57 +1.3% -8.3% 93% 7% -7.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.3% 7% -7.5%
10% -17.1% 4% -16.3%
15% -25.1% 2% -24.4%
20% -32.5% 0% -31.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$12 · ×0.23 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×3.02 per $1 lost it wins $3.02
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

273d coverage
Net worth$369
Realized+$102
Unrealized+$6
Win rate (resolved)93%
Wins / losses53 / 4
Open positions2
Markets (closed)57 / 59
History coverage273d
Avg bet$83
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown23%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 57 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? No 98¢ 98¢ $263 $264 +$1 (+1%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 94¢ 99¢ $100 $105 +$5 (+5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $138 +$9 +6%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 17 $100 +$15 +15%
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $23 −$23 -100%
Will Graham Platner be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine? Jun 10 $153 +$3 +2%
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 08 $20 +$5 +24%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $200 +$1 +1%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $152 +$1 +1%
Will Romania win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $49 +$1 +3%
Starmer out by May 15, 2026? May 16 $92 +$9 +9%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? May 11 $37 +$1 +3%
Will US withdraw from NATO by April 30? May 11 $100 +$1 +1%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? May 11 $100 +$2 +2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026? May 11 $100 +$2 +2%
Netanyahu out by March 31? Apr 01 $229 +$6 +3%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by March 31? Apr 01 $140 +$2 +1%
Will Sarah Knafo win the Paris mayor election? Mar 17 $100 +$1 +1%
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31? Mar 12 $97 +$3 +3%
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? Mar 05 $110 +$3 +3%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? Mar 01 $141 +$7 +5%
Starmer out by February 28, 2026? Mar 01 $62 +$2 +4%
Will André Ventura win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? Feb 05 $152 +$3 +2%
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? Jan 29 $148 +$8 +5%
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? Jan 23 $61 −$9 -14%
New "Stranger Things" episode released by Wednesday? Jan 08 $146 +$2 +1%
Will A Minecraft Movie be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jan 06 $60 +$1 +2%
Weed rescheduled in 2025? Jan 01 $20 +$1 +4%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? Jan 01 $48 +$1 +3%
Maduro out in 2025? Jan 01 $173 +$3 +2%
Wicked vs Avatar: Bigger Domestic Opening Weekend? Dec 23 $60 +$1 +1%
Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than Dec 23 $110 +$2 +2%
Will Jeannette Jara win the Chilean presidential election? Dec 15 $60 +$2 +3%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Dec 11 $60 +$1 +2%
Will Donald Trump be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Dec 11 $169 +$3 +2%
Trump declassifies UFO files in 2025? Dec 10 $110 +$2 +2%
Will Mercedes finish second in the 2025 Constructors' Championship? Dec 07 $126 +$7 +6%
Will Polymarket US go live in 2025? Dec 05 $111 +$1 +1%
Will Trump win FIFA Peace Prize? Dec 05 $19 +$1 +3%
Will Bad Bunny be the top Spotify artist for 2025? Dec 03 $50 +$1 +3%
Will MicroStrategy announce holding 650k+ BTC by November 30? Dec 01 $49 +$1 +2%
Will Zohran Mamdani win Staten Island? Nov 06 $58 +$4 +7%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Nov 05 $100 +$9 +10%
Will Mikie Sherrill win the New Jersey Governor Election in 2025 Nov 05 $60 +$11 +18%
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2025? Nov 04 $25 $0 +1%
Will Curtis Sliwa drop out? Nov 04 $27 +$2 +9%
Will Democrats 66 win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamen Nov 02 $69 +$1 +1%
Will the People's Party for Freedom and Democracy win the second most Oct 30 $28 −$8 -30%
Over $1B committed to the MegaETH public sale? Oct 30 $26 +$2 +6%
Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping in 2025? Oct 29 $50 +$1 +3%
Will Geert Wilders become the next Prime Minister of the Netherlands? Oct 27 $23 +$1 +3%
Israel strikes Gaza by October 17? Oct 18 $42 −$10 -23%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $100 1h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $23 15h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $14 25h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $5 26h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $20 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $100 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $147 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $115 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 94¢ $138 4d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 87¢ $100 4d
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? BUY No 55¢ $5 5d
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? BUY No 91¢ $18 5d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 94¢ $100 10d
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? BUY Yes 80¢ $20 12d
Will Graham Platner be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine? BUY Yes 97¢ $53 16d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $100 16d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $100 17d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $54 20d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $98 20d
Will Graham Platner be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine? BUY Yes 99¢ $100 20d
Will Romania win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 97¢ $49 34d
Starmer out by May 15, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $50 38d
Starmer out by May 15, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $42 39d
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $37 56d
Will US withdraw from NATO by April 30? BUY No 99¢ $51 64d
Will US withdraw from NATO by April 30? BUY No 99¢ $49 64d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $100 64d
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? BUY No 98¢ $100 64d
Netanyahu out by March 31? SELL No 100¢ $235 79d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by March 31? BUY No 99¢ $50 89d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $368.87 · official $368.60 (match) · 169 history records