Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T17:19:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

FC
0xfcdf…8431
crypto · 50 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
+$65 +3%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$260 · open −$14
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY crypto specialistFresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$16
Realized+$260
Unrealized−$14
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses17 / 31
Open positions2
Markets (closed)48 / 50
History coverage107d
Avg bet$51
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown66%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 2 History 48 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$119
7 days−$12
14 days−$27
30 days−$94
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $20 $14 −$6 (-31%)
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Yes 77¢ 20¢ $10 $3 −$7 (-74%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Down 1¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Up 33¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Down 56¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Down 1¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Down 67¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Up 4¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Down 34¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Up 6¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Down 2¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Up 16¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Iran closes its airspace by May 27? Yes 99¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Down 51¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Up 2¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Up 4¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Down 2¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Up 8¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Up 3¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Up 4¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Up 7¢ 0¢ $18 $0 −$18 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Up 8¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Up 23¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Down 17¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Down 4¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$118 +2218%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 14 $32 +$11 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -96%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 08 $200 −$91 -46%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 08 $50 −$42 -84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 07 $10 +$24 +232%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 07 $16 −$2 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 07 $10 −$5 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 07 $26 −$4 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 07 $10 −$5 -48%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 07 $300 +$11 +4%
Iran closes its airspace by June 22? Jun 07 $210 +$57 +27%
Iran closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 07 $200 −$74 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 07 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 07 $16 −$10 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET May 25 $10 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET May 25 $16 −$15 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET May 24 $11 −$10 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET May 24 $16 +$2 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET May 24 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET May 24 $19 −$18 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET May 24 $16 +$127 +800%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET May 24 $11 +$42 +397%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 24 $100 −$80 -80%
Iran closes its airspace by May 27? May 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by May 21? May 21 $150 −$125 -84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET May 20 $2 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET May 20 $4 −$2 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET May 20 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET May 18 $2 +$13 +625%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET May 18 $7 −$1 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET May 18 $16 +$20 +126%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Apr 28 $15 +$11 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Mar 25 $3 −$3 -98%
Will US or Israel strike Iran first? Mar 02 $210 −$45 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Mar 02 $2 −$2 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? Mar 02 $259 +$244 +94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Mar 02 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Mar 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Mar 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Mar 01 $5 +$7 +150%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Mar 01 $5 +$160 +3203%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Mar 01 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Mar 01 $5 +$2 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Feb 28 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Feb 28 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Feb 28 $1 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 87% −$165
crypto 13% +$411
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $124 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Down 4¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $22 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET SELL Down 4¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 6¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET SELL Down 14¢ $13 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET SELL Down 13¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $5 1h
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? SELL Yes 55¢ $81 6d
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? SELL No 0¢ $8 6d
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? BUY Yes 68¢ $100 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET SELL Down 71¢ $29 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET SELL Down 65¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Down 10¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $6 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 6¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET SELL Up 19¢ $7 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 12¢ $5 6d
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? BUY No 1¢ $50 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $7 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET SELL Up 79¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $5 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)+64.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 +119.2% +98.3% 36% 29% -11.6%
≤30d 33 +72.6% +56.1% 33% 27% -16.0%
≤90d 35 +67.5% +51.6% 34% 29% -15.5%
all 48 +81.8% +64.5% 35% 29% -0.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +64.5% 29% -0.6%
10% +48.8% 29% -10.1%
15% +34.4% 23% -18.8%
20% +21.2% 21% -26.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $16.45 · official $16.45 (match) · 158 history records