Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T19:25:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

FC
0xfcdb…c4ee
crypto · 448 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$158 -8%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$152 · open −$6
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$29
Realized−$152
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses188 / 255
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions5
Markets (closed)443 / 448
History coverage58d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day9.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 5 History 443 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$27
7 days+$70
14 days+$70
30 days+$70
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Yes 64¢ 66¢ $16 $16 +$1 (+4%)
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Yes 51¢ 52¢ $12 $12 +$0 (+3%)
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Up 24¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-98%)
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Down 57¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-99%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Down 53¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-99%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Down 17¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Down 38¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Up 31¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Down 31¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Up 32¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Magic vs. Pistons Magic 40¢ 0¢ $19 $0 −$19 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Down 35¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Down 32¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Up 12¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Down 30¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Down 7¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Madrid Open: Jan-Lennard Struff vs Alex Michelsen Jan-Lennard Struff 18¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Up 39¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Up 13¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Up 30¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Down 36¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Up 50¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Down 30¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Up 33¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Down 29¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 12 $4 +$1 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 12 $3 +$2 +52%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 12 $1 +$4 +266%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 12 $3 +$2 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 12 $4 +$1 +42%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 12 $2 +$3 +152%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 12 $3 +$2 +79%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 12 $3 +$2 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 12 $4 +$1 +33%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 12 $3 +$2 +73%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 12 $4 +$2 +48%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +7%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 12 $1 +$4 +240%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 12 $6 −$1 -14%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 12 $6 −$1 -10%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +6%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 12 $2 +$3 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 12 $4 +$1 +42%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -95%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 12 $6 $0 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 12 $4 +$2 +44%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 12 $6 −$1 -16%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 12 $1 +$4 +296%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +18%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 12 $3 +$2 +76%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -95%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 12 $3 +$2 +79%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 12 $6 −$1 -12%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 12 $4 +$1 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 12 $4 +$1 +38%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 51% +$18
weather 23% −$88
sports 15% +$6
finance 5% −$93
economics 3% −$1
politics 2% $0
other 1% +$1
world 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Up 24¢ $1 4m
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $3 6m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $2 8m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $2 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $3 9m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $2 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $3 12m
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $1 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $1 16m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $3 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $2 23m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $2 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $4 29m
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $2 29m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $2 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $3 34m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $3 37m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $2 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $2 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $4 42m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $3 42m
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $1 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $3 47m
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Down 17¢ $1 48m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Down 21¢ $1 51m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $4 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $4 52m
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $1 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $3 56m
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $3 56m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-12.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 401 -0.2% -9.7% 43% 40% -2.9%
≤30d 401 -0.2% -9.7% 43% 40% -2.9%
≤90d 443 -3.2% -12.4% 42% 39% -17.0%
all 443 -3.2% -12.4% 42% 39% -17.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover9.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.4% 39% -17.0%
10% -20.8% 35% -24.9%
15% -28.4% 31% -32.2%
20% -35.5% 27% -38.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $28.55 · official $29.38 (match) · 793 history records