Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:34:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FC 0xfcda…bb51 weather 146 markets active 1h ago coverage 248d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$814 (+2%) realized +$855 · open −$41
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate58%80W / 59L
Whale WR83%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$224per market
Trades / day5.4pace
Fees−$26est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$1,172now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$91
7 days+$262
14 days+$262
30 days+$262
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 63% +$426
sports 23% +$499
other 14% +$22
crypto 0% −$50
world 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-13.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 +42.5% +28.9% 57% 32% -6.2%
≤30d 28 +42.5% +28.9% 57% 32% -6.2%
≤90d 135 -13.4% -21.6% 56% 40% -9.8%
all 139 -4.0% -13.2% 58% 42% -6.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.2% 42% -6.8%
10% -21.5% 21% -15.7%
15% -29.1% 14% -23.8%
20% -36.0% 7% -31.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
26% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 83% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -14% → late +6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
6.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$69 vs −$77 · ×0.89 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.21 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

248d coverage
Net worth$1,172
Realized+$855
Unrealized−$41
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses80 / 59
Whale WR (big bets)83%
Est. fees paid−$26
Open positions7
Markets (closed)139 / 146
History coverage248d
Avg bet$224
Trades / day5.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 139 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 0 Colombia? No 94¢ 88¢ $500 $471 −$29 (-6%)
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Colombia O/U 0.5 Over 90¢ 84¢ $500 $467 −$33 (-7%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 13¢ $117 $153 +$36 (+31%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $78 $63 −$15 (-19%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-13%)
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 1 Colombia? Yes 14¢ 21¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+50%)
Uzbekistan to score first vs. Colombia? Yes 21¢ 20¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Colombia (-3.5) Jun 18 $301 −$7 -2%
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 0 Panama? Jun 18 $903 +$96 +11%
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 0 Panama? Jun 18 $5 +$35 +687%
Panama to score first vs. Ghana? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -98%
Nikola Vlašić: 1+ goals Jun 17 $186 +$12 +6%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 Jun 17 $235 −$33 -14%
Spread: England (-2.5) Jun 17 $301 −$12 -4%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $702 −$368 -52%
Jude Bellingham: 1+ goals Jun 17 $13 +$51 +383%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Harry Kane: 1+ goals Jun 17 $15 +$10 +71%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $50 +$9 +18%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $503 +$106 +21%
Spread: Portugal (-3.5) Jun 17 $579 +$18 +3%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 2 Algeria? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Spread: Norway (-3.5) Jun 16 $962 +$63 +7%
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $650 +$50 +8%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 16 $13 +$1 +5%
France vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $3 +$23 +738%
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $5 −$3 -63%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $10 −$4 -35%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $20 +$12 +58%
Exact Score: France 0 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $949 +$65 +7%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $648 +$114 +18%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 15 $702 +$59 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 19°C on March 30? Apr 07 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 18°C on March 30? Mar 30 $505 +$133 +26%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 8°C on March 30? Mar 30 $57 +$5 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 7°C on March 30? Mar 30 $448 +$35 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 6°C on March 30? Mar 30 $901 −$901 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 25°C or below on March 30? Mar 30 $1,149 +$141 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 8°C on March 30? Mar 30 $18 +$1 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 7°C on March 30? Mar 30 $46 −$43 -93%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 17°C on March 30? Mar 30 $18 −$18 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be 65°F or below on March 29? Mar 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on March 30? Mar 30 $27 +$23 +85%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 74-75°F on March 29? Mar 30 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 70-71°F on March 29? Mar 30 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 68-69°F on March 29? Mar 30 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 64-65°F on March 29 Mar 30 $97 +$22 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 62-63°F on March 29 Mar 30 $1,077 +$279 +26%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 72-73°F on March 29? Mar 30 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on Marc Mar 30 $23 +$4 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on Marc Mar 30 $155 +$30 +19%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 66-67°F on March 29? Mar 30 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 46-47°F on March 29 Mar 29 $273 +$56 +21%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 80-81°F on March 29 Mar 29 $376 +$90 +24%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 0 Colombia? BUY No 94¢ $501 1h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 1 Colombia? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 1h
Uzbekistan to score first vs. Colombia? BUY Yes 21¢ $3 1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Colombia O/U 0.5 BUY Over 90¢ $501 1h
Spread: Colombia (-3.5) SELL Uzbekistan 88¢ $294 1h
Spread: Colombia (-3.5) BUY Uzbekistan 90¢ $301 1h
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 0 Panama? SELL No 100¢ $999 1h
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 0 Panama? SELL Yes 97¢ $40 1h
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 0 Panama? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 3h
Panama to score first vs. Ghana? BUY Yes 40¢ $4 3h
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 0 Panama? BUY No 90¢ $903 4h
Nikola Vlašić: 1+ goals SELL No 99¢ $198 4h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 23¢ $20 4h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 SELL Over 29¢ $0 4h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 SELL Over 30¢ $192 4h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 SELL Over 30¢ $5 4h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 33¢ $204 5h
Spread: England (-2.5) SELL Croatia 84¢ $290 5h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL No 35¢ $3 5h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL No 35¢ $79 5h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL No 35¢ $68 5h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL No 35¢ $48 5h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL No 35¢ $4 5h
Jude Bellingham: 1+ goals SELL Yes 99¢ $64 5h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 20¢ $10 5h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL No 69¢ $133 5h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 5h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 86¢ $100 6h
Harry Kane: 1+ goals SELL Yes 99¢ $25 6h
Harry Kane: 1+ goals BUY Yes 58¢ $15 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,171.70 · official $1,171.70 (match) · 1400 history records