Wallet analysis

2026-06-30T00:04:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FC 0xfcda…35b8 other 12 markets active 1h ago coverage 13d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$35 (-13%) realized −$35 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%5W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day1.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit25%portable
Net worth$10now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$14
7 days+$14
14 days−$53
30 days−$53
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 81% −$48
sports 19% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-20.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +19.5% +8.2% 60% 60% +2.5%
≤30d 10 -12.1% -20.5% 50% 50% -27.3%
≤90d 10 -12.1% -20.5% 50% 50% -27.3%
all 10 -12.1% -20.5% 50% 50% -27.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.5% 50% -27.3%
10% -28.1% 50% -34.3%
15% -35.1% 40% -40.6%
20% -41.4% 20% -46.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 51% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -20% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$23 · ×0.55 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.55 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

13d coverage
Net worth$10
Realized−$35
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses5 / 5
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)10 / 12
History coverage13d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit25%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 10 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-29? Yes 28¢ 28¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Will Netherlands vs. Morocco end in a draw? Yes 32¢ 32¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance Jun 29 $28 −$11 -40%
Will Germany vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 29 $20 +$6 +30%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $20 −$11 -55%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $25 +$19 +76%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? Jun 28 $13 +$11 +86%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $17 −$17 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $34 +$14 +41%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $47 −$47 -99%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $34 +$13 +40%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance SELL Paraguay 79¢ $15 36m
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance BUY Paraguay 93¢ $18 39m
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance SELL Germany 11¢ $2 39m
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance BUY Germany 60¢ $10 54m
Will Germany vs. Paraguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $26 1h
Will Germany vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 76¢ $20 1h
Will Netherlands vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $5 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes 34¢ $9 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 74¢ $20 3h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 28¢ $5 4h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 56¢ $25 8h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 53¢ $13 29h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 71¢ $17 8d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $30 8d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 100¢ $48 8d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $34 8d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $47 12d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $47 12d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $34 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10.01 · official $10.01 (match) · 23 history records