Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T10:40:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
FC 0xfcd9…8323 crypto 452 markets active 2h ago coverage 174d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$195 (+1%) realized +$195 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate90%408W / 44L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$50per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$31
7 days+$31
14 days+$31
30 days+$31
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 60% +$274
sports 40% −$116
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-9.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +6.7% -3.4% 100% 22% -3.4%
≤30d 9 +6.7% -3.4% 100% 22% -3.4%
≤90d 39 +8.0% -2.3% 100% 31% -2.3%
all 452 +0.6% -9.0% 90% 43% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.0% 43% -8.9%
10% -17.7% 11% -17.6%
15% -25.7% 2% -25.6%
20% -32.9% 0% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
52% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$50 · ×0.12 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.07 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

174d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$195
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)90%
Wins / losses408 / 44
Open positions0
Markets (closed)452 / 452
History coverage174d
Avg bet$50
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 452 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 25 $51 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 25 $51 +$4 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 25 $51 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 25 $51 +$4 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 25 $51 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 25 $51 +$8 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 25 $51 +$3 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 25 $51 +$7 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 25 $51 +$4 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET May 21 $51 +$9 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET May 21 $51 +$7 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET May 21 $51 +$10 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET May 21 $51 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET May 21 $51 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET May 21 $51 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET May 21 $51 +$10 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET May 21 $51 +$9 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET May 21 $51 +$10 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET May 21 $51 +$9 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET May 18 $51 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET May 18 $51 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET May 18 $51 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET May 18 $51 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET May 18 $51 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET May 18 $51 +$10 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET May 18 $51 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET May 18 $51 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET May 18 $51 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET May 18 $51 +$4 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET May 15 $51 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET May 15 $51 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET May 15 $51 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET May 15 $51 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET May 15 $51 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET May 15 $51 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET May 15 $51 +$4 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET May 15 $51 +$3 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET May 15 $51 +$10 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET May 15 $51 +$10 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Feb 18 $50 +$7 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Feb 18 $50 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Feb 18 $50 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Feb 18 $50 +$6 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Feb 18 $50 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Feb 18 $50 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Feb 18 $50 +$9 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Feb 18 $50 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Feb 18 $50 +$4 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Feb 18 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Feb 18 $50 +$2 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $51 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $51 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $51 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $51 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $51 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $51 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $51 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $51 34d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $51 34d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $51 34d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $51 34d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $51 34d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $51 34d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $51 34d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $51 34d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $51 35d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $51 35d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $51 38d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $51 38d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $51 38d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $51 38d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $51 38d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $51 38d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $51 38d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $51 38d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $51 38d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $51 38d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $51 41d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 979 history records