Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:18:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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FC 0xfcd9…e34c crypto 543 markets active 0h ago coverage 172d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 171d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$4,368 (-2%) realized −$4,361 · open −$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR16%break-even
Win rate86%467W / 74L
Whale WR88%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$350per market
Trades / day16.7pace
Fees−$13est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$243now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$288
7 days−$213
14 days−$254
30 days−$254
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 97% −$4,881
other 3% −$154
sports 1% +$113
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)-11.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 39 +0.3% -9.3% 51% 46% -13.6%
≤30d 40 -2.2% -11.5% 50% 45% -14.6%
≤90d 40 -2.2% -11.5% 50% 45% -14.6%
all 541 -2.7% -11.9% 86% 16% -11.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.9% 16% -11.8%
10% -20.4% 7% -20.2%
15% -28.1% 4% -27.9%
20% -35.1% 3% -35.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
80% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 88% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -2% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$24 vs −$219 · ×0.11 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

172d coverage
Net worth$243
Realized−$4,361
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)86%
Wins / losses467 / 74
Whale WR (big bets)88%
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions3
Markets (closed)541 / 543
History coverage172d ⚠
Avg bet$350
Trades / day16.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 541 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 73¢ 72¢ $200 $199 −$1 (-1%)
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-2%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $20 $15 −$5 (-24%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 51 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Zootopia 2 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jun 18 $60 −$60 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 18 $51 +$9 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 18 $75 +$4 +6%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $132 +$192 +145%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 17 $102 −$100 -98%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $121 +$85 +70%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $15 +$73 +474%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $101 +$26 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 17 $12 +$7 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 17 $58 +$2 +3%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $153 −$152 -99%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $262 +$90 +34%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $41 −$40 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $201 +$43 +21%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 −$9 -85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 17 $62 +$7 +11%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $101 +$50 +50%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $61 +$60 +98%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $141 +$41 +29%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $31 +$94 +307%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $120 −$120 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $202 −$200 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $172 +$161 +93%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $51 −$49 -96%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $26 +$64 +250%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $222 +$96 +43%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $152 −$123 -81%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 14 $41 −$26 -64%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $41 −$40 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $121 −$120 -99%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $9 −$9 -97%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $121 −$120 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $102 +$111 +109%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 12 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 11 $82 −$80 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $112 −$110 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $160 +$70 +44%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 09 $42 −$41 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Feb 13 $248 −$248 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Feb 13 $177 +$23 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Feb 13 $17 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Feb 13 $100 +$5 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Feb 13 $200 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Feb 13 $40 −$39 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Feb 13 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Feb 13 $154 +$8 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Feb 12 $20 +$4 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Feb 12 $170 +$2 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $51 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $79 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $19 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $19 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $19 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $17 19m
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $31 57m
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 73¢ $202 57m
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $325 59m
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 40¢ $31 3h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $102 3h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 40¢ $102 3h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $121 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET SELL Up 96¢ $19 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $12 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $58 10h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 79¢ $101 10h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $15 10h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $77 14h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $77 14h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 85¢ $60 21h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $10 22h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $15 22h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $101 22h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $15 22h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $101 22h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 23h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 15¢ $10 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $69 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $26 24h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $243.07 · official $243.07 (match) · 3500 history records