Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T10:33:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
FC 0xfcd5…6e00 crypto 102 markets active 0h ago coverage 52d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$441 (+16%) realized +$441 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +1% what you keep after slip
Net edge+1%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate47%48W / 54L
Drawdown36%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day4.0pace
Fees−$16est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$205
7 days+$350
14 days+$350
30 days+$350
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 56% +$121
sports 40% +$241
other 4% −$17
weather 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)+5.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 95 +21.5% +9.9% 48% 41% +0.7%
≤30d 95 +21.5% +9.9% 48% 41% +0.7%
≤90d 102 +16.2% +5.1% 47% 40% +0.3%
all 102 +16.2% +5.1% 47% 40% +0.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +5.1% 40% +0.3%
10% -5.0% 38% -9.3%
15% -14.1% 30% -18.1%
20% -22.6% 24% -26.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +13% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +16% · $-wt +13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +32% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$8 · ×1.96 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.74 per $1 lost it wins $1.74
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

52d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$441
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses48 / 54
Est. fees paid−$16
Open positions0
Markets (closed)102 / 102
History coverage52d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day4.0
Drawdown36%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 102 Trades
no open positions (30 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 16 $61 +$22 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 16 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 16 $82 −$15 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 16 $62 +$36 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 16 $31 +$9 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 16 $31 −$30 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 16 $42 −$40 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$10 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$22 +211%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 16 $93 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$9 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$9 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 16 $21 −$1 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 16 $21 +$8 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 15 $93 −$30 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 15 $62 −$13 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 15 $62 −$8 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 15 $31 −$30 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 15 $41 −$1 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 15 $62 −$14 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 15 $31 −$30 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 15 $21 $0 +0%
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $10 −$3 -25%
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $10 −$2 -18%
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $10 −$8 -80%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $1 $0 -6%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $1 $0 -1%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $1 $0 +2%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $1 $0 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 15 $21 +$16 +76%
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $10 −$2 -22%
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $10 −$2 -21%
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $10 −$1 -12%
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $10 −$1 -5%
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $10 $0 -4%
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $10 $0 -3%
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $10 $0 -2%
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $10 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 15 $21 −$3 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 15 $21 −$1 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 15 $31 −$30 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 15 $61 +$18 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 15 $31 +$40 +129%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$10 +490%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $20 +$10 +47%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $1 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET SELL Down 94¢ $84 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $31 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $31 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Down 2¢ $11 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET SELL Up 14¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET SELL Down 82¢ $59 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 15¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 5¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 5¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $39 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET SELL Up 95¢ $33 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $31 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $31 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $31 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $10 10h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 246 history records