Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T08:47:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
FC 0xfcd2…e477 other 40 markets active 1h ago coverage 185d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$2,879 (+26%) realized +$2,892 · open −$13
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +23% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +11% what you keep after slip
Net edge+11%after slip
Net WR66%break-even
Win rate80%28W / 7L
Drawdown62%max
Avg bet$273per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit48%portable
Net worth$443now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$61
7 days+$146
14 days+$146
30 days+$146
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 85% +$2,295
sports 13% +$405
world 2% +$150
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +66%
net ROI/market (all)+11.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +45.7% +31.8% 100% 100% +30.3%
≤30d 3 +45.7% +31.8% 100% 100% +30.3%
≤90d 19 +37.4% +24.4% 89% 89% +31.6%
all 35 +22.9% +11.2% 80% 66% +15.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +11.2% 66% +15.4%
10% +0.6% 63% +4.3%
15% -9.1% 49% -5.7%
20% -18.0% 40% -15.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 76% · top 2 84% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +46% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +23% · $-wt +28% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +45% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$208 vs −$423 · ×0.49 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.97 per $1 lost it wins $1.97
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

185d coverage
Net worth$443
Realized+$2,892
Unrealized−$13
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses28 / 7
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions5
Markets (closed)35 / 40
History coverage185d
Avg bet$273
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown62%
Kalshi-fit48%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 35 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Netherlands O/U 2.5 Under 76¢ 75¢ $99 $98 −$1 (-1%)
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 Under 57¢ 56¢ $99 $98 −$1 (-1%)
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 2.5 Under 69¢ 66¢ $100 $97 −$3 (-3%)
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Belgium O/U 2.5 Under 70¢ 68¢ $78 $76 −$1 (-2%)
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Portugal O/U 2.5 Under 58¢ 54¢ $80 $74 −$6 (-7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $99 +$61 +62%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $138 +$43 +31%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $96 +$42 +44%
Will AC Milan win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $97 +$114 +118%
Spread: Juventus FC (-1.5) May 17 $101 +$91 +89%
Juventus FC vs. ACF Fiorentina: O/U 3.5 May 17 $101 +$55 +54%
Spread: Juventus FC (-2.5) May 17 $96 +$33 +34%
Juventus FC vs. ACF Fiorentina: O/U 4.5 May 17 $101 +$24 +24%
Will AS Roma win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $51 +$39 +76%
Juventus FC vs. ACF Fiorentina: O/U 2.5 May 17 $52 +$37 +70%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - April 18, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Apr 18 $26 +$8 +32%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - April 18, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Apr 18 $30 +$14 +47%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - April 18, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Apr 18 $35 +$20 +57%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - April 18, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Apr 18 $50 +$9 +19%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - April 18, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Apr 18 $50 +$15 +30%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - April 18, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Apr 18 $50 +$32 +65%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - April 18, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Apr 18 $60 +$35 +58%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - April 18, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Apr 18 $30 −$29 -96%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - April 18, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Apr 18 $50 −$48 -97%
Will AC Milan win on 2026-02-18? Feb 17 $104 −$104 -100%
Will Variational launch a token by December 31, 2026? Feb 17 $103 $0 +0%
Will Torino FC win on 2026-02-01? Feb 01 $40 +$49 +122%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,500 by end of January? Feb 01 $62 +$5 +9%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,000 by end of January? Jan 26 $20 −$20 -100%
Juventus FC vs. SSC Napoli: O/U 1.5 Jan 25 $54 +$29 +54%
Heat vs. Jazz Jan 25 $53 +$1 +1%
Nuggets vs. Bucks Jan 25 $52 +$1 +2%
Spread: Saint Louis Billikens (-9.5) Jan 24 $50 +$1 +2%
Will Hyperliquid hit $30 in January? Jan 23 $1,385 +$499 +36%
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? Jan 17 $139 +$104 +75%
Will Hyperliquid dip to $20 in January? Jan 17 $70 −$2 -3%
US strikes Iran by January 17, 2026? Jan 16 $74 +$45 +61%
Will lighter perform an airdrop by December 31? Dec 30 $1,006 −$752 -75%
Lighter Airdrop on December 30? Dec 30 $2,005 −$2,005 -100%
Lighter Airdrop on December 29? Dec 30 $3,943 +$4,414 +112%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Netherlands O/U 2.5 BUY Under 76¢ $100 1h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Belgium O/U 2.5 BUY Under 70¢ $78 1h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Portugal O/U 2.5 BUY Under 58¢ $81 1h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 2.5 BUY Under 69¢ $101 1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 57¢ $100 20h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 2.5 BUY Under 61¢ $99 21h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 SELL Under 99¢ $180 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 75¢ $138 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 99¢ $138 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 68¢ $96 2d
Will AC Milan win on 2026-05-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $211 31d
Spread: Juventus FC (-1.5) SELL ACF Fiorentina 100¢ $192 31d
Juventus FC vs. ACF Fiorentina: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 100¢ $156 31d
Spread: Juventus FC (-2.5) SELL ACF Fiorentina 100¢ $129 31d
Juventus FC vs. ACF Fiorentina: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 100¢ $125 31d
Will AS Roma win on 2026-05-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $89 31d
Juventus FC vs. ACF Fiorentina: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 100¢ $89 31d
Juventus FC vs. ACF Fiorentina: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 58¢ $52 31d
Will AC Milan win on 2026-05-17? BUY Yes 44¢ $46 31d
Juventus FC vs. ACF Fiorentina: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 80¢ $101 31d
Will AS Roma win on 2026-05-17? BUY Yes 56¢ $51 31d
Will AC Milan win on 2026-05-17? BUY Yes 46¢ $51 31d
Spread: Juventus FC (-2.5) BUY ACF Fiorentina 74¢ $96 32d
Juventus FC vs. ACF Fiorentina: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 64¢ $101 32d
Spread: Juventus FC (-1.5) BUY ACF Fiorentina 52¢ $101 32d
Hyperliquid Up or Down - April 18, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $60 61d
Hyperliquid Up or Down - April 18, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $30 61d
Hyperliquid Up or Down - April 18, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $50 61d
Hyperliquid Up or Down - April 18, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $50 61d
Hyperliquid Up or Down - April 18, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $26 61d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $442.87 · official $442.89 (match) · 176 history records