Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:22:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FC 0xfcd1…2f68 other 29 markets active 1h ago coverage 621d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$23 (-0%) realized −$23 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate18%5W / 23L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$599per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$314now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 91% −$198
politics 5% −$2
sports 3% $0
crypto 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-13.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 1 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 2 -0.1% -9.6% 50% 0% -9.6%
all 28 -4.6% -13.7% 18% 4% -10.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.7% 4% -10.6%
10% -21.9% 4% -19.1%
15% -29.5% 4% -27.0%
20% -36.4% 4% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 47% · top 2 78% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
80% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,505) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +5% → late -14% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
0.8 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$11 · ×0.01 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

621d coverage
Net worth$314
Realized−$23
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)18%
Wins / losses5 / 23
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)28 / 29
History coverage621d
Avg bet$599
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 28 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election? No 99¢ 99¢ $314 $314 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 18 $313 −$1 -0%
Will the Miami Heat win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 17 $297 $0 +0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 14 $297 −$1 -0%
Will Lucas rank #1 among boy names on the SSA’s official list for 2025 Dec 29 $300 −$150 -50%
Will Brentford win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Dec 15 $107 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200k in October? Nov 21 $106 $0 +0%
Will Brentford win on 2025-09-27? Oct 25 $53 −$26 -50%
Will Marian Vanghelie be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Sep 27 $10 $0 -0%
Orioles vs. Guardians Sep 27 $53 $0 +0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Jul 21 $9 $0 -0%
Oilers vs. Golden Knights Jul 21 $48 $0 +0%
Will Victor Ponta win the Romanian presidential election? May 09 $10 $0 -0%
Golden Knights vs. Red Wings May 09 $53 $0 +0%
Will the Washington Wizards win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 16 $10 $0 -0%
Brentford wins the Premier League? Mar 16 $2 $0 +0%
Will AC Milan win the UEFA Champions League? Mar 16 $3 $0 +1%
Will Everton win on 2024-12-07? Mar 16 $49 $0 +0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Jan 19 $0 $0 +73%
Will the Panthers win Super Bowl 2025? Oct 05 $1,510 −$3 -0%
Will the Patriots win Super Bowl 2025? Oct 05 $1,489 −$3 -0%
Will the Giants win Super Bowl 2025? Oct 05 $1,478 −$3 -0%
Will the Dolphins win Super Bowl 2025? Oct 05 $1,498 −$2 -0%
Will the Jaguars win Super Bowl 2025? Oct 05 $1,603 −$2 -0%
Will the Cardinals win Super Bowl 2025? Oct 05 $1,576 −$2 -0%
Will the Colts win Super Bowl 2025? Oct 05 $1,602 −$2 -0%
Will the Chargers win Super Bowl 2025? Oct 05 $1,538 −$2 -0%
Will the Bengals win Super Bowl 2025? Oct 05 $1,544 −$2 -0%
Will the Vikings win Super Bowl 2025? Oct 05 $1,505 −$3 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $314 1h
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $312 1h
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $313 61d
Will the Miami Heat win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 99¢ $189 121d
Will the Miami Heat win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 99¢ $106 121d
Will the Miami Heat win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 99¢ $297 123d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $296 123d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 100¢ $297 145d
Will Lucas rank #1 among boy names on the SSA’s official list for 2025 SELL No 100¢ $163 170d
Will Lucas rank #1 among boy names on the SSA’s official list for 2025 SELL No 100¢ $137 170d
Will Brentford win the 2025–26 English Premier League? SELL No 100¢ $106 184d
Will Brentford win the 2025–26 English Premier League? BUY No 100¢ $107 208d
Will Bitcoin reach $200k in October? BUY No 100¢ $106 235d
Will Marian Vanghelie be the next Mayor of Bucharest? SELL No 100¢ $10 263d
Will Marian Vanghelie be the next Mayor of Bucharest? BUY No 100¢ $10 263d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2025 Drivers Champion? SELL No 100¢ $9 331d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2025 Drivers Champion? BUY No 100¢ $9 331d
Will Victor Ponta win the Romanian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $10 404d
Will Victor Ponta win the Romanian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $10 404d
Will the Washington Wizards win the 2025 NBA Finals? SELL No 100¢ $10 458d
Will the Washington Wizards win the 2025 NBA Finals? BUY No 100¢ $10 458d
Will AC Milan win the UEFA Champions League? BUY No 99¢ $3 515d
Brentford wins the Premier League? BUY No 100¢ $2 555d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? BUY No 58¢ $0 592d
Will the Panthers win Super Bowl 2025? SELL No 100¢ $1,507 620d
Will the Panthers win Super Bowl 2025? BUY No 100¢ $1,510 620d
Will the Patriots win Super Bowl 2025? SELL No 100¢ $1,486 620d
Will the Patriots win Super Bowl 2025? BUY No 100¢ $1,489 620d
Will the Giants win Super Bowl 2025? SELL No 100¢ $1,475 620d
Will the Giants win Super Bowl 2025? BUY No 100¢ $1,478 620d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $313.54 · official $313.54 (match) · 145 history records