Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T22:45:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FC 0xfccf…3ed1 sports 167 markets active 2h ago coverage 168d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$44 (-0%) realized −$44 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate12%20W / 146L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$146per market
Trades / day3.6pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$36now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 31% −$22
other 24% −$6
politics 21% −$11
crypto 8% −$3
culture 6% −$3
economics 6% −$2
finance 2% +$2
tech 1% $0
world 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 +0.0% -9.5% 50% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 53 -0.3% -9.8% 13% 0% -9.7%
all 166 -0.1% -9.6% 12% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 54% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
95% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.04 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.19 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

168d coverage
Net worth$36
Realized−$44
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses20 / 146
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)166 / 167
History coverage168d
Avg bet$146
Trades / day3.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 166 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf be head of state in Iran end of 2026? No 96¢ 96¢ $36 $36 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2026 World Series? Jun 19 $72 $0 -0%
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 04 $38 $0 +0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet May 27 $47 $0 -0%
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? May 15 $42 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 21 $207 $0 -0%
Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 21 $229 $0 +0%
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 Apr 20 $244 $0 -0%
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Apr 20 $108 −$1 -1%
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 20 $108 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 19 $56 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 19 $609 −$1 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 19 $808 $0 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 18 $275 −$1 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 17 $46 $0 -0%
Will the Montreal Canadiens win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Apr 17 $115 $0 +0%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 17 $96 $0 -0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $433 $0 -0%
Spread: Real Madrid CF (-2.5) Apr 15 $48 −$1 -1%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 15 $46 $0 +0%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 14 $47 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2026? Apr 14 $49 $0 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 14 $62 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? Apr 13 $38 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in April? Apr 13 $45 $0 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Apr 13 $222 $0 -0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 12 $271 $0 -0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 12 $554 −$1 -0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 12 $267 −$1 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 12 $45 $0 +0%
Will the Pittsburgh Penguins win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Apr 12 $434 −$1 -0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 11 $50 $0 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in April? Apr 11 $52 $0 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 10 $45 $0 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 10 $284 $0 -0%
Will Jorge Nieto win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 10 $52 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Apr 10 $301 −$1 -0%
Will the Buffalo Sabres win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Apr 09 $54 $0 -0%
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 09 $190 −$2 -1%
Will Real Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 08 $60 $0 +0%
Spread: Club Atlético de Madrid (-2.5) Apr 08 $49 −$2 -4%
Will Tommy Fleetwood win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 08 $48 $0 -0%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 07 $59 $0 -0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 07 $355 $0 -0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 03 $332 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $10,000 by December 31, 2026? Apr 02 $159 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 01 $56 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 01 $496 −$1 -0%
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Mar 31 $579 −$2 -0%
Will Xander Schauffele win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 30 $58 $0 -0%
Netanyahu out by April 30? Mar 30 $136 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 96¢ $36 1h
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 97¢ $8 7d
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 97¢ $8 7d
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 97¢ $63 14d
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $64 14d
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 95¢ $38 22d
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $38 22d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet SELL Yes 97¢ $47 30d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY Yes 97¢ $47 30d
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 97¢ $42 42d
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 97¢ $42 42d
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 96¢ $49 66d
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 96¢ $49 66d
Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $52 66d
Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $52 66d
Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $65 66d
Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $65 67d
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 SELL No 96¢ $39 67d
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 BUY No 96¢ $39 67d
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? SELL Yes 96¢ $62 67d
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? BUY Yes 97¢ $62 67d
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 96¢ $58 67d
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 95¢ $58 68d
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 96¢ $56 68d
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 96¢ $56 68d
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 97¢ $54 68d
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 97¢ $54 68d
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 94¢ $59 68d
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 94¢ $59 69d
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 95¢ $47 69d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $36.33 · official $36.33 (match) · 705 history records