Wallet analysis

2026-06-30T02:31:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FC 0xfcca…b6af politics 102 markets active 2h ago coverage 336d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$17 (+1%) realized −$3 · open +$20
Gross ROI / mkt +17% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +6% what you keep after slip
Net edge+6%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate32%30W / 63L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day2.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$320now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$10
7 days−$10
14 days−$65
30 days−$65
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 46% +$167
finance 17% −$62
other 15% −$17
economics 11% −$125
sports 8% +$13
world 2% +$31
tech 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)+6.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 5 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤90d 14 -33.4% -39.7% 29% 21% -42.3%
all 93 +17.3% +6.1% 32% 29% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +6.1% 29% -9.4%
10% -4.0% 26% -18.1%
15% -13.3% 23% -26.0%
20% -21.8% 22% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -36% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +17% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +31% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
4.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$9 · ×1.98 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

336d coverage
Net worth$320
Realized−$3
Unrealized+$20
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses30 / 63
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions9
Markets (closed)93 / 102
History coverage336d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 93 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $93 $122 +$29 (+31%)
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes $55 $93 +$38 (+70%)
Netherlands vs. Morocco: Neither team to score first? Yes 10¢ 48¢ $10 $48 +$38 (+385%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $33 $33 −$0 (-1%)
Any Brazil STF Justice removed by impeachment before 2027? Yes 15¢ $91 $17 −$74 (-81%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ $10 $6 −$5 (-48%)
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 10¢ 12¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+20%)
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes $2 $0 −$2 (-95%)
Netanyahu out by June 30? Yes 17¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 30 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 29 $11 −$10 -97%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $4 −$4 -97%
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 22 $20 −$20 -98%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $11 −$10 -98%
No change in the Selic rate after Bank of Brazil’s June 2026 meeting? Jun 17 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? May 14 $39 +$25 +64%
Will Javokhir Sindarov win the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament? Apr 11 $26 −$20 -77%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April? Apr 08 $41 −$40 -97%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in April? Apr 06 $11 +$7 +61%
Will Anish Giri win the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament? Apr 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Praggnanandhaa R win the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament? Apr 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Hikaru Nakamura win the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament? Apr 03 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Fabiano Caruana win the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament? Apr 01 $8 $0 +4%
Will Javokhir Sindarov win on 2026-04-01 at FIDE Candidates 2026 Open? Apr 01 $7 +$27 +403%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of March? Mar 25 $50 −$30 -60%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March? Mar 24 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of March? Mar 23 $7 +$10 +139%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March? Mar 23 $25 +$18 +74%
Will Wei Yi win the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament? Mar 21 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of March? Mar 19 $106 +$4 +3%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $180 by end of March? Mar 19 $3 −$2 -66%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $65 by end of March? Mar 19 $13 −$5 -40%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of March? Mar 19 $49 −$19 -39%
Will Paloma Valencia win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian president Mar 17 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of March? Mar 17 $52 −$16 -31%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of March? Mar 17 $11 −$6 -56%
Netanyahu out by March 31? Mar 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the US deport illegal migrants to Argentina by March 31? Mar 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Argentina’s monthly inflation in February 2026 be between 2.5% an Mar 12 $47 +$11 +23%
Will Argentina’s monthly inflation in February 2026 be between 2.8% an Mar 12 $62 −$1 -1%
Will Argentina’s monthly inflation in February 2026 be between 2.2% an Mar 12 $6 −$4 -64%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of March? Mar 12 $30 +$10 +32%
Will Roy Barreras win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Mar 10 $6 −$5 -87%
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle at $70-$75 in March? Mar 10 $3 +$8 +246%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Mar 10 $8 −$4 -48%
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle at $85-$90 in March? Mar 10 $10 +$5 +54%
Will Ali Khamenei be the next leader out before 2027? Mar 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle at $75-$80 in March? Mar 09 $7 −$1 -9%
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle at $90+ in March? Mar 09 $2 +$4 +179%
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31? Mar 09 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele Mar 08 $19 +$2 +8%
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Mar 07 $5 $0 -2%
US strikes Iran by March 1, 2026? Feb 28 $2 +$4 +258%
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? Feb 28 $3 +$6 +207%
US strikes Iran by March 2, 2026? Feb 28 $6 +$16 +245%
US strikes Iran by March 6, 2026? Feb 28 $2 +$3 +213%
US strikes Iran by March 9, 2026? Feb 28 $11 +$17 +150%
US strikes Iran by February 26, 2026? Feb 20 $4 −$4 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 23, 2026? Feb 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair? Dec 02 $3 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $39 1h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $22 3h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $3 3h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $8 3h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $11 10h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $10 10h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $15 10h
Netherlands vs. Morocco: Neither team to score first? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 10h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $12 23h
Any Brazil STF Justice removed by impeachment before 2027? BUY Yes $0 28h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $23 28h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $53 5d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $14 5d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 12¢ $4 7d
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $20 7d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 35¢ $11 12d
No change in the Selic rate after Bank of Brazil’s June 2026 meeting? BUY Yes 18¢ $15 12d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 12d
No change in the Selic rate after Bank of Brazil’s June 2026 meeting? BUY Yes 12¢ $6 12d
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 17d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes $2 19d
Any Brazil STF Justice removed by impeachment before 2027? BUY Yes $0 45d
Any Brazil STF Justice removed by impeachment before 2027? BUY Yes $0 45d
Any Brazil STF Justice removed by impeachment before 2027? BUY Yes $6 45d
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes $8 46d
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes $14 46d
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes $14 46d
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes $10 47d
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes $1 47d
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes $4 47d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $320.34 · official $319.57 (match) · 681 history records