Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T04:32:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FC 0xfcc8…6933 other 12 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$9 (-8%) realized −$14 · open +$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -75% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -78% what you keep after slip
Net edge-78%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate9%1W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day3.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$15now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 62% −$65
other 31% −$18
sports 7% +$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-77.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -75.1% -77.5% 9% 9% -86.7%
≤30d 11 -75.1% -77.5% 9% 9% -86.7%
≤90d 11 -75.1% -77.5% 9% 9% -86.7%
all 11 -75.1% -77.5% 9% 9% -86.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -77.5% 9% -86.7%
10% -79.6% 9% -88.0%
15% -81.6% 9% -89.2%
20% -83.4% 9% -90.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -85% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -75% · $-wt -85% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$9 · ×0.98 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.1 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$15
Realized−$14
Unrealized+$5
Win rate (resolved)9%
Wins / losses1 / 10
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)11 / 12
History coverage4d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day3.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 11 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 12¢ $10 $15 +$5 (+49%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 19 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 19 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 19 $26 −$25 -96%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $2 −$2 -98%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $5 +$9 +174%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 1 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Curaçao leading at halftime? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 14 $7 −$7 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Down 4¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Up 0¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $26 1h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 1h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 34h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 25¢ $5 3d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $14 3d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 36¢ $5 3d
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 1 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 7¢ $5 3d
Curaçao leading at halftime? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 4d
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Curaçao? BUY Yes 15¢ $7 4d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $14.87 · official $14.87 (match) · 16 history records