Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T20:38:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FC 0xfcc6…3b11 other 9 markets active 1h ago coverage 7d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$12 (-53%) realized −$11 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -70% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -73% what you keep after slip
Net edge-73%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate17%1W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day1.9pace
Kalshi-fit11%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 7d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 95% −$13
world 5% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-73.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -70.2% -73.1% 17% 0% -69.0%
≤30d 6 -70.2% -73.1% 17% 0% -69.0%
≤90d 6 -70.2% -73.1% 17% 0% -69.0%
all 6 -70.2% -73.1% 17% 0% -69.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -73.1% 0% -69.0%
10% -75.6% 0% -71.9%
15% -78.0% 0% -74.7%
20% -80.2% 0% -77.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -66% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -70% · $-wt -66% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$3 · ×0.03 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.01 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized−$11
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)17%
Wins / losses1 / 5
Open positions3
Markets (closed)6 / 9
History coverage7d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit11%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 6 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+6%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-8%)
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Yes 18¢ 3¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-84%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $3 $0 +2%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -86%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Scotland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu Jun 14 $5 −$2 -40%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 1h
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 14¢ $3 1h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 52¢ $1 19h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 6¢ $0 20h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 42¢ $2 21h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 23h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 32¢ $5 25h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 27¢ $3 2d
Will Scotland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu SELL No 20¢ $3 2d
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $3 6d
Will Scotland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY No 32¢ $5 6d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 6d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.14 · official $2.13 (match) · 13 history records