Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T19:22:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FC 0xfcc4…f3da other 42 markets active 0h ago coverage 702d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$7 · open −$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate9%3W / 31L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$30now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$25
7 days−$25
14 days−$25
30 days−$25
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 35% −$20
politics 20% −$8
tech 17% −$3
culture 15% −$5
sports 6% +$1
world 5% +$4
crypto 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-13.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 -5.5% -14.5% 0% 0% -13.7%
≤30d 22 -5.5% -14.5% 0% 0% -13.7%
≤90d 22 -5.5% -14.5% 0% 0% -13.7%
all 34 -4.0% -13.1% 9% 3% -12.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.1% 3% -12.6%
10% -21.5% 0% -21.0%
15% -29.0% 0% -28.6%
20% -36.0% 0% -35.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 49% · top 2 93% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×2.15 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.21 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

702d coverage
Net worth$30
Realized+$7
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)9%
Wins / losses3 / 31
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions8
Markets (closed)34 / 42
History coverage702d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 34 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Coldplay perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show? No 48¢ 42¢ $13 $12 −$2 (-12%)
Will Wizkid perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show? Yes 12¢ 7¢ $11 $7 −$4 (-36%)
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be an Independent or a Technocrat? Yes 14¢ 12¢ $7 $6 −$1 (-18%)
Will the Eurozone's 2026 Annual Inflation be at least 3.1%? No 91¢ 92¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+1%)
Will Zelenskyy post 80-99 posts from June 26 to July 3, 2026? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-21%)
Will GPT-5.6 be released on July 9, 2026? Yes 23¢ 23¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will Argentina be the furthest advancing CONMEBOL nation at the World Cup? No 32¢ 37¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+16%)
Will the Eurozone's 2026 Annual Inflation be between 1.3% and 1.5%? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Croatia be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup? Jun 29 $24 −$1 -5%
Will T1 Qualify to the MSI 2026 Knockout Stage Jun 29 $1 $0 -1%
Will Lionel Messi win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 29 $17 $0 -1%
Will GPT-5.6 be released on July 8, 2026? Jun 29 $45 −$1 -2%
Will Argentina’s annual inflation in 2026 be between 25% and 29.9%? Jun 29 $3 $0 -3%
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be a member of PSD? Jun 29 $51 −$2 -4%
Will Michael Olise record the most assists at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 29 $52 −$4 -8%
Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between Jun 29 $51 −$3 -6%
Will Lionel Messi's national team advance the furthest at the 2026 FIF Jun 29 $11 −$1 -10%
Will Trump attend 2 World Cup matches? Jun 29 $1 $0 -5%
Will "The Odyssey" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 95m and 105m? Jun 29 $32 −$1 -2%
Will Ted Cruz post 80-99 posts from June 26 to July 3, 2026? Jun 29 $5 $0 -8%
GPT-5.6 released by July 17, 2026? Jun 29 $81 −$2 -2%
Will White House post 160-179 posts from June 26 to July 3, 2026? Jun 29 $10 −$2 -20%
Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between Jun 29 $37 −$2 -5%
Will Zelenskyy post 40-59 posts from June 26 to July 3, 2026? Jun 29 $11 −$1 -5%
Will Burna Boy perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show? Jun 29 $37 −$3 -9%
Will Argentina record the most clean sheets at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 29 $4 $0 -8%
Will Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from June 26 to July Jun 29 $17 −$1 -5%
Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026? Jun 29 $3 $0 -9%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 60 and 70 million views on week Jun 29 $56 $0 -1%
World Cup: Messi to Score 2+ Penalties? Jun 29 $5 $0 -2%
Will Trump formally nominate RFK Jr. to the cabinet? Dec 29 $36 −$1 -3%
Liverpool wins the Premier League? Dec 29 $18 +$3 +16%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire in 2024? Dec 18 $38 +$3 +8%
Ethereum all time high in Q4 2024? Dec 07 $12 −$1 -10%
Arsenal wins the Premier League? Dec 05 $13 $0 -1%
Will Oregon win the 2025 College Football Playoff? Dec 03 $6 −$1 -10%
Will Napoli win the Serie A? Nov 27 $9 −$1 -9%
Will Republicans control 220 seats in the House after the election? Nov 25 $8 $0 -5%
Will there be a 269-269 tie in Electoral College? Nov 07 $4 $0 -0%
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024? Nov 06 $4 $0 +10%
Kamala Harris wins the popular vote? Aug 09 $18 −$2 -11%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Jul 28 $18 −$1 -3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Croatia be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup? SELL No 75¢ $22 2m
Will Croatia be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup? BUY No 78¢ $24 2m
Will T1 Qualify to the MSI 2026 Knockout Stage SELL No 5¢ $1 5m
Will GPT-5.6 be released on July 9, 2026? BUY Yes 23¢ $1 13m
Will Lionel Messi win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 68¢ $17 14m
Will Lionel Messi win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 68¢ $17 14m
Will GPT-5.6 be released on July 9, 2026? SELL Yes 23¢ $8 22m
Will GPT-5.6 be released on July 9, 2026? BUY Yes 23¢ $8 23m
Will GPT-5.6 be released on July 8, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $44 26m
Will GPT-5.6 be released on July 8, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $45 26m
Will the Eurozone's 2026 Annual Inflation be at least 3.1%? BUY No 91¢ $3 28m
Will Zelenskyy post 80-99 posts from June 26 to July 3, 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 29m
Will Argentina be the furthest advancing CONMEBOL nation at the World SELL No 32¢ $4 29m
Will Argentina be the furthest advancing CONMEBOL nation at the World BUY No 32¢ $5 29m
Will Argentina’s annual inflation in 2026 be between 25% and 29.9%? SELL Yes 21¢ $0 44m
Will the Eurozone's 2026 Annual Inflation be between 1.3% and 1.5%? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 47m
Will Argentina’s annual inflation in 2026 be between 25% and 29.9%? SELL Yes 21¢ $1 55m
Will T1 Qualify to the MSI 2026 Knockout Stage BUY No 5¢ $1 1h
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be a member of PSD? SELL Yes 50¢ $24 1h
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be a member of PSD? BUY Yes 50¢ $25 1h
Will Argentina’s annual inflation in 2026 be between 25% and 29.9%? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 1h
Will Argentina’s annual inflation in 2026 be between 25% and 29.9%? SELL Yes 21¢ $1 1h
Will Argentina’s annual inflation in 2026 be between 25% and 29.9%? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 1h
Will Michael Olise record the most assists at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 61¢ $30 1h
Will Michael Olise record the most assists at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 67¢ $34 1h
Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between SELL Yes 31¢ $15 1h
Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between BUY Yes 32¢ $16 1h
Will Lionel Messi's national team advance the furthest at the 2026 FIF SELL No 23¢ $5 1h
Will Trump attend 2 World Cup matches? SELL Yes 15¢ $1 1h
Will Trump attend 2 World Cup matches? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $29.51 · official $29.25 (match) · 103 history records