Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T19:02:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FC 0xfcc2…72be sports 129 markets active 2h ago coverage 158d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$11 (-0%) realized −$11 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate11%14W / 114L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$40per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$29now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 27% −$3
politics 24% −$2
other 16% −$3
culture 9% −$2
crypto 9% $0
economics 8% −$1
world 4% $0
tech 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 +0.3% -9.2% 50% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 3 -0.2% -9.7% 33% 0% -9.8%
all 128 -0.2% -9.7% 11% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.4% 0% -18.4%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.3%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.56 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.09 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

158d coverage
Net worth$29
Realized−$11
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)11%
Wins / losses14 / 114
Open positions1
Markets (closed)128 / 129
History coverage158d
Avg bet$40
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 128 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026? No 96¢ 96¢ $29 $29 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will BetBoom win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 13 $29 $0 +1%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 31 $74 $0 -0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? May 18 $42 −$1 -1%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m Feb 19 $37 $0 -0%
Will Cyprus win Eurovision 2026? Feb 19 $41 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in February? Feb 19 $36 $0 -0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? Feb 19 $38 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e Feb 19 $36 $0 -0%
US strikes Iran by February 20, 2026? Feb 19 $76 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 19 $42 $0 -0%
Will Marty Supreme win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Feb 19 $123 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? Feb 16 $38 $0 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Feb 16 $53 $0 -0%
US strikes Iran by February 19, 2026? Feb 16 $41 $0 -0%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 World Series? Feb 16 $42 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Feb 16 $38 $0 -0%
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? Feb 16 $36 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 16 $89 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Feb 16 $80 $0 -0%
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Feb 16 $181 $0 -0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Febru Feb 16 $119 $0 -0%
Will France win Eurovision 2026? Feb 16 $40 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in February? Feb 16 $38 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Kings win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Feb 16 $38 $0 -0%
Will the Montreal Canadiens win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Feb 16 $46 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Rockets win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Feb 16 $76 $0 -0%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? Feb 16 $43 $0 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 16 $37 $0 -0%
Will Luka Doncic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Feb 16 $131 −$1 -0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 16 $38 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 16 $40 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 16 $97 $0 -0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Feb 16 $40 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 16 $127 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia Eagles win the 2027 NFL league championship? Feb 15 $44 $0 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Feb 15 $40 $0 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Feb 15 $40 $0 -0%
Will Hamnet win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Feb 15 $128 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Feb 15 $38 $0 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Feb 15 $129 $0 -0%
Will the US next strike Iran on February 20, 2026 (ET)? Feb 15 $46 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 15 $93 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? Feb 15 $62 $0 -0%
Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election? Feb 15 $38 $0 -0%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be István Kapitány? Feb 15 $41 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 15 $78 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 10 $45 $0 -0%
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? Feb 10 $96 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Penguins win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Feb 10 $22 $0 -0%
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Feb 10 $38 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $29 1h
Will BetBoom win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL No 98¢ $29 7d
Will BetBoom win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY No 97¢ $29 8d
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 95¢ $30 21d
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 95¢ $30 21d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $42 34d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $42 37d
Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 92¢ $38 122d
Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $38 122d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m SELL No 98¢ $37 122d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m BUY No 98¢ $37 122d
Will Cyprus win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 98¢ $41 122d
Will Cyprus win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 98¢ $41 122d
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in February? SELL No 98¢ $36 122d
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in February? BUY No 98¢ $36 122d
Will the Orlando Magic win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? SELL No 97¢ $38 122d
Will the Orlando Magic win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? BUY No 97¢ $38 122d
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e SELL No 95¢ $36 122d
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e BUY No 95¢ $36 122d
US strikes Iran by February 20, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $35 122d
US strikes Iran by February 20, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $35 122d
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $42 122d
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $42 122d
Will Marty Supreme win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? SELL No 97¢ $40 122d
Will Marty Supreme win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? BUY No 97¢ $40 122d
US strikes Iran by February 20, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $42 122d
US strikes Iran by February 20, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $42 122d
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? SELL No 92¢ $31 125d
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? SELL No 92¢ $7 125d
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? BUY No 92¢ $38 125d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $29.38 · official $29.38 (match) · 479 history records