Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T19:27:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

FC
0xfcc2…d395
sports · 43 markets active 1h ago
7.5score
+$115 +50%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$115 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✓ COPY-WORTHY Fading edge⚠ Small sample
Net worth$26
Realized+$115
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses14 / 6
Open positions23
Markets (closed)20 / 43
History coverage136d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown8%
Kalshi-fit77%
Chart Positions 23 History 20 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$4
14 days+$4
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will SpaceX's market cap be less than $1.0T at market close on IPO day? No 100¢ 100¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+0%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T? No 100¢ 100¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+0%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.2T? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+0%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.8T? No 100¢ 100¢ $1 $2 +$0 (+0%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.4T? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting? No 100¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.0T and $1.5T at market close on IPO day? No 100¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? No 99¢ 99¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? Yes 99¢ 99¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on June 14? No 100¢ 100¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting? No 100¢ 100¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting? No 100¢ 100¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? No 100¢ 99¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 14? No 100¢ 100¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 14? No 100¢ 100¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 14? No 99¢ 99¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Rockets vs. Bulls Rockets 77¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 08 $22 +$4 +17%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 14 $40 +$4 +9%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 26 $16 +$3 +20%
Rockets vs. Bulls Mar 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Kings vs. Islanders Mar 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Dayton Flyers vs. UNCW Seahawks Mar 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Blues vs. Jets Mar 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Iowa Hawkeyes vs. Ohio State Buckeyes Mar 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Magic vs. Heat Mar 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Hurricanes vs. Penguins Mar 23 $2 +$1 +72%
Raptors vs. Suns Mar 23 $2 +$2 +127%
Kentucky Wildcats vs. Iowa State Cyclones: O/U 146.5 Mar 23 $101 +$100 +99%
Bruins vs. Devils Mar 17 $1 +$1 +89%
Jazz vs. Kings Mar 16 $1 +$1 +85%
Hornets vs. Spurs Mar 15 $2 +$1 +45%
George Washington Revolutionaries vs. Saint Louis Billikens Mar 14 $2 +$1 +42%
Nuggets vs. Spurs Mar 13 $2 +$3 +204%
Cavaliers vs. Magic Mar 12 $1 +$1 +144%
Suns vs. Bucks Mar 11 $2 +$1 +93%
Will Silver (SI) settle at $70-$72.5 in January? Feb 28 $2 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 54% +$105
politics 34% +$10
other 5% $0
tech 4% $0
weather 2% $0
economics 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1 1h
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1 1h
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1 1h
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1 1h
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $1 1h
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1 1h
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1 1h
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1 1h
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 14? BUY No 99¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $1 1h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $1 1h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 100¢ $1 1h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY Yes 99¢ $1 1h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 100¢ $1 1h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.4T? BUY Yes 100¢ $1 1h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.2T? BUY Yes 100¢ $2 1h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.8T? BUY No 100¢ $1 1h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T? BUY No 100¢ $2 1h
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.0T and $1.5T at market close on BUY No 100¢ $1 1h
Will SpaceX's market cap be less than $1.0T at market close on IPO day BUY No 100¢ $2 1h
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes $26 4d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY Yes $22 58d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes $16 59d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes $1 59d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes $1 59d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes $0 59d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes $4 59d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +60%
net ROI/market (all)+10.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +16.7% +5.6% 100% 100% +5.6%
≤30d 1 +16.7% +5.6% 100% 100% +5.6%
≤90d 15 -2.5% -11.8% 60% 53% +40.2%
all 20 +22.3% +10.7% 70% 60% +41.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +10.7% 60% +41.4%
10% +0.1% 50% +27.9%
15% -9.6% 50% +15.5%
20% -18.4% 40% +4.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $26.22 · official $26.22 (match) · 145 history records