Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T19:32:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
FC 0xfcb8…067c sports 54 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (131 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$394 (-3%) realized −$32 · open −$362
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate52%21W / 19L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$260per market
Trades / day130.9pace
Fees−$114est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$2,389now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 67% −$847
other 33% +$177
crypto 0% −$67
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (131 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-16.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 40 -7.5% -16.3% 52% 52% -12.6%
≤30d 40 -7.5% -16.3% 52% 52% -12.6%
≤90d 40 -7.5% -16.3% 52% 52% -12.6%
all 40 -7.5% -16.3% 52% 52% -12.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover130.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.3% 52% -12.6%
10% ← realistic here -24.3% 48% -21.0%
15% -31.6% 40% -28.6%
20% -38.3% 30% -35.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -20% → late +5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$168 vs −$205 · ×0.82 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$2,389
Realized−$32
Unrealized−$362
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses21 / 19
Est. fees paid−$114
Open positions14
Markets (closed)40 / 54
History coverage2d
Avg bet$260
Trades / day130.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 14 History 40 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? No 83¢ 91¢ $349 $383 +$34 (+10%)
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Uruguay 71¢ 70¢ $297 $296 −$1 (-0%)
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 3.5 Under 49¢ 46¢ $294 $273 −$21 (-7%)
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? No 64¢ 64¢ $269 $267 −$2 (-1%)
Spread: France (-1.5) France 45¢ 64¢ $189 $267 +$78 (+41%)
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? No 61¢ 60¢ $256 $254 −$2 (-1%)
Norway leading at halftime? No 83¢ 99¢ $174 $208 +$33 (+19%)
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 Under 56¢ 46¢ $235 $191 −$44 (-19%)
Egypt vs. IR Iran: Draw at halftime? No 48¢ 48¢ $101 $102 +$1 (+1%)
Will France win on 2026-06-26? No 40¢ 13¢ $168 $56 −$112 (-67%)
Spread: Senegal (-1.5) Iraq 44¢ 12¢ $185 $52 −$132 (-72%)
Will Colombia be the highest-scoring team in Group K during the Group Stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 19¢ 18¢ $29 $27 −$1 (-5%)
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? No 21¢ 3¢ $88 $13 −$75 (-85%)
Norway vs. France: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Under 56¢ 0¢ $118 $0 −$117 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 17 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
United States leading at halftime? Jun 26 $126 +$84 +67%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $209 +$211 +101%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 26 $290 +$130 +45%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $330 +$90 +27%
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 Jun 26 $209 +$211 +101%
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 26 $252 −$252 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $321 +$99 +31%
Japan vs. Sweden: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 26 $141 +$69 +49%
Japan leading at halftime? Jun 26 $21 +$12 +56%
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $426 −$6 -2%
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 Jun 26 $294 +$126 +43%
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) Jun 26 $213 +$207 +97%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $109 −$109 -100%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 3.5 Jun 25 $124 −$124 -100%
Netherlands leading at halftime? Jun 25 $67 −$67 -100%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 25 $109 −$109 -100%
Germany leading at halftime? Jun 25 $125 +$121 +96%
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 Jun 25 $234 +$186 +79%
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 25 $300 −$297 -99%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $323 −$323 -100%
Ecuador vs. Germany: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $135 −$135 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $237 +$363 +153%
Korea Republic leading at halftime? Jun 25 $342 +$258 +75%
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 25 $444 +$156 +35%
Spread: Korea Republic (-1.5) Jun 25 $402 +$198 +49%
Czechia leading at halftime? Jun 25 $498 +$102 +20%
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $282 +$318 +113%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 25 $603 −$3 -0%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 25 $313 +$287 +92%
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $285 −$282 -99%
Morocco vs. Haiti: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $23 −$23 -100%
Brazil leading at halftime? Jun 24 $272 −$270 -99%
Bosnia-Herzegovina vs. Qatar: Draw at halftime? Jun 24 $394 +$206 +52%
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5) Jun 24 $484 +$96 +20%
Bosnia-Herzegovina vs. Qatar: 2nd Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners Jun 24 $492 −$492 -100%
Bosnia-Herzegovina leading at halftime? Jun 24 $101 −$101 -100%
Switzerland vs. Canada: Draw at halftime? Jun 24 $318 −$318 -100%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: Draw at halftime? Jun 24 $342 −$342 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $710 −$308 -43%
Czechia vs. Mexico: Draw at halftime? Jun 24 $342 −$342 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Uruguay 71¢ $299 28m
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 56¢ $235 44m
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? BUY No 83¢ $350 1h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 45¢ $192 1h
Spread: Senegal (-1.5) BUY Iraq 44¢ $188 1h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 21¢ $90 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 61¢ $259 1h
Egypt vs. IR Iran: Draw at halftime? BUY No 48¢ $43 2h
Egypt vs. IR Iran: Draw at halftime? BUY No 48¢ $1 2h
Norway leading at halftime? BUY No 83¢ $174 3h
Egypt vs. IR Iran: Draw at halftime? BUY No 48¢ $1 3h
Egypt vs. IR Iran: Draw at halftime? BUY No 48¢ $56 4h
Norway vs. France: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 56¢ $59 6h
Norway vs. France: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 56¢ $59 6h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 64¢ $272 10h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 40¢ $171 10h
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 49¢ $90 10h
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 49¢ $209 10h
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 49¢ $209 18h
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY No 60¢ $252 18h
United States leading at halftime? BUY No 60¢ $126 18h
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 52¢ $109 20h
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 53¢ $6 20h
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 53¢ $74 20h
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 53¢ $43 20h
Netherlands leading at halftime? BUY No 32¢ $67 20h
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $217 21h
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) BUY Tunisia 26¢ $50 21h
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) BUY Tunisia 26¢ $9 21h
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) BUY Tunisia 26¢ $50 21h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,388.93 · official $2,388.93 (match) · 341 history records