Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T23:19:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FC 0xfcb7…91c4 weather 240 markets active 0h ago coverage 46d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$281 (-7%) realized −$281 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate47%112W / 126L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day19.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$7now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$25
14 days−$26
30 days−$83
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 86% −$278
other 12% −$66
culture 1% −$11
crypto 1% +$3
tech 0% −$1
sports 0% +$1
finance 0% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-11.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 39 -12.8% -21.1% 28% 15% -19.7%
≤30d 159 +3.4% -6.4% 47% 18% -14.7%
≤90d 238 -1.6% -11.0% 47% 19% -17.4%
all 238 -1.6% -11.0% 47% 19% -17.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.0% 19% -17.4%
10% -19.5% 8% -25.3%
15% -27.3% 5% -32.5%
20% -34.4% 1% -39.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
59% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late +7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$5 · ×0.43 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.38 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

46d coverage
Net worth$7
Realized−$281
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses112 / 126
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)238 / 240
History coverage46d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day19.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 238 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Yes 25¢ 24¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-6%)
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Yes 35¢ 34¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 $0 -5%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 15 $1 $0 -4%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 15 $1 $0 -4%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 15 $1 $0 -4%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 15 $1 $0 -4%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $2 +$1 +40%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $3 −$1 -28%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $9 −$5 -60%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Ju Jun 15 $1 $0 -31%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju Jun 15 $7 $0 -3%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 16? Jun 15 $3 −$1 -30%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on June 15? Jun 15 $3 $0 -8%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on June 15? Jun 15 $5 −$1 -30%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on June 15? Jun 15 $5 $0 -6%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 15? Jun 15 $2 +$1 +41%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 15? Jun 15 $3 +$1 +44%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 15? Jun 15 $3 −$1 -17%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 15? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 15? Jun 15 $5 −$1 -23%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $4 $0 -10%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 82-83°F on June 14? Jun 14 $4 $0 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on June 14? Jun 14 $4 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ju Jun 14 $4 $0 -7%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 14? Jun 14 $57 +$5 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 17°C on June 11? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C on June 11? Jun 11 $3 $0 -12%
Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on June 11? Jun 11 $3 $0 +15%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 24°C on June 11? Jun 11 $2 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 12? Jun 11 $3 $0 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 11? Jun 11 $5 −$2 -48%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 11? Jun 11 $4 $0 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on June 10? Jun 10 $4 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 23°C on June 10? Jun 10 $14 −$3 -21%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 13°C on June 10? Jun 10 $2 $0 -17%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 22°C on June 10? Jun 10 $8 +$3 +40%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 21°C on June 10? Jun 10 $8 −$4 -47%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 10? Jun 10 $13 −$2 -18%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 10? Jun 10 $14 −$1 -10%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 20°C or below on June 1 Jun 10 $11 −$8 -69%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 20°C on June 5? Jun 06 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 17°C on May 8? Jun 06 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 36°C on June 6? Jun 06 $20 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on June 6? Jun 06 $27 +$2 +8%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 6? Jun 06 $6 +$1 +15%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 22°C on June 5? Jun 05 $3 +$1 +35%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 21°C on June 5? Jun 05 $1 +$21 +1523%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 23°C on June 5? Jun 05 $4 −$2 -47%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 92-93°F on Ju Jun 05 $47 −$1 -2%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ju Jun 05 $18 −$2 -9%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 19°C on June 5? Jun 05 $12 −$1 -10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 35¢ $4 5m
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 25¢ $4 6m
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 56¢ $8 56m
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 65¢ $5 1h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 54¢ $1 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 70¢ $1 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 71¢ $1 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 56¢ $1 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 72¢ $1 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 68¢ $3 2h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $3 2h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 70¢ $2 2h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 24¢ $2 2h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 32¢ $3 2h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 11¢ $3 2h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 31¢ $8 3h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 72¢ $1 3h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $1 3h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 73¢ $1 3h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 71¢ $1 3h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 55¢ $1 3h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 68¢ $1 3h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 4h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Ju SELL No 33¢ $1 4h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Ju BUY No 45¢ $1 4h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju SELL Yes 40¢ $1 4h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 16? SELL Yes 37¢ $0 4h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju BUY Yes 54¢ $2 4h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 16? SELL Yes 42¢ $2 4h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 16? BUY Yes 57¢ $3 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7.18 · official $7.18 (match) · 909 history records