Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T13:30:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
FC 0xfcb7…7777 sports 20 markets active 0h ago coverage 7d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$45 (+8%) realized +$46 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate47%8W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day3.0pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$138now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 7d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$37
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-11.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 -1.8% -11.2% 47% 47% -1.3%
≤30d 17 -1.8% -11.2% 47% 47% -1.3%
≤90d 17 -1.8% -11.2% 47% 47% -1.3%
all 17 -1.8% -11.2% 47% 47% -1.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.2% 47% -1.3%
10% -19.7% 47% -10.7%
15% -27.4% 47% -19.3%
20% -34.6% 41% -27.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 47% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +9% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +8% → late -10% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$16 · ×1.43 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.27 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$138
Realized+$46
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses8 / 9
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions3
Markets (closed)17 / 20
History coverage7d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day3.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 17 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners Seattle Mariners 58¢ 57¢ $76 $75 −$1 (-1%)
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves San Francisco Giants 43¢ 42¢ $39 $38 −$0 (-1%)
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics Los Angeles Angels 45¢ 44¢ $24 $24 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 17 $24 −$24 -100%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 17 $44 +$39 +90%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 17 $78 +$46 +60%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 16 $55 −$3 -5%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 16 $11 −$11 -100%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 16 $11 −$11 -100%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros Jun 16 $21 +$24 +114%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 16 $41 +$20 +50%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $6 +$10 +172%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 13 $14 +$12 +86%
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 13 $12 −$12 -100%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 13 $38 −$38 -100%
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 13 $11 −$11 -100%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 13 $10 +$10 +101%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 12 $12 −$12 -100%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 11 $18 +$18 +101%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics BUY Los Angeles Angels 45¢ $25 14m
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners BUY Seattle Mariners 58¢ $77 40m
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves BUY San Francisco Giants 43¢ $39 1h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Toronto Blue Jays 52¢ $44 42h
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals BUY San Diego Padres 49¢ $24 43h
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Philadelphia Phillies 62¢ $78 44h
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox SELL Atlanta Braves 52¢ $52 2d
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals BUY Kansas City Royals 44¢ $11 2d
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Tampa Bay Rays 42¢ $11 2d
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Philadelphia Phillies 66¢ $41 3d
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros BUY Detroit Tigers 46¢ $21 3d
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Boston Red Sox 53¢ $14 4d
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Tampa Bay Rays 51¢ $20 4d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 36¢ $6 5d
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 49¢ $10 5d
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians BUY Detroit Tigers 48¢ $11 6d
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Kansas City Royals 49¢ $12 6d
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY New York Yankees 51¢ $38 6d
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes BUY Golden Knights 42¢ $12 6d
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Texas Rangers 49¢ $18 6d
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Atlanta Braves 53¢ $55 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $137.59 · official $137.59 (match) · 37 history records