Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T21:20:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FC 0xfcb5…68bc crypto 144 markets active 0h ago coverage 357d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
Total PnL −$62,766 (-28%) realized −$77,415 · open +$204
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -25% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate32%44W / 94L
Whale WR34%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,570per market
Trades / day2.3pace
Fees−$366est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$3,206now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$10,290
7 days+$7,601
14 days+$7,601
30 days−$3,911
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 42% −$36,700
other 32% −$36,630
sports 13% −$3,725
world 9% +$10,089
politics 3% −$7,171
tech 1% −$2,615
economics 0% −$384
finance 0% −$74
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-32.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -26.1% -33.1% 25% 25% +38.7%
≤30d 52 -30.4% -37.1% 31% 27% -18.5%
≤90d 92 -18.2% -26.0% 38% 36% -44.5%
all 138 -25.3% -32.4% 32% 30% -41.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -32.4% 30% -41.0%
10% -38.9% 28% -46.7%
15% -44.8% 25% -51.8%
20% -50.2% 22% -56.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -45% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -25% · $-wt -38% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 34% (≥$2,000) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -13% → late -38% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1,426 vs −$1,491 · ×0.96 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.45 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

357d coverage
Net worth$3,206
Realized−$77,415
Unrealized+$204
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses44 / 94
Whale WR (big bets)34%
Est. fees paid−$366
Open positions6
Markets (closed)138 / 144
History coverage357d
Avg bet$1,570
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 138 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Netherlands 16¢ 34¢ $1,500 $3,193 +$1,693 (+113%)
Netherlands vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Over 10¢ 0¢ $100 $5 −$95 (-95%)
Will Freddie Mac’s market cap be $300B or greater at market close on IPO day? Yes 29¢ 0¢ $320 $4 −$316 (-99%)
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score in First Half Yes 18¢ 0¢ $892 $2 −$890 (-100%)
Will Freddie Mac’s market cap be less than $150B at market close on IPO day? Yes 12¢ 0¢ $100 $2 −$98 (-98%)
Will Fannie Mae’s market cap be $400B or greater at market close on IPO day? Yes 48¢ 0¢ $90 $0 −$90 (-100%)
Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $400 $0 −$400 (-100%)
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be at least $250? Yes 7¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Down 18¢ 0¢ $542 $0 −$542 (-100%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.6T? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $249 $0 −$249 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Up 11¢ 0¢ $110 $0 −$110 (-100%)
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Over 46¢ 0¢ $2,385 $0 −$2,385 (-100%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.2T? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $620 $0 −$620 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Up 32¢ 0¢ $350 $0 −$350 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Up 25¢ 0¢ $1,386 $0 −$1,386 (-100%)
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be at least $250? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $24 $0 −$24 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Down 25¢ 0¢ $255 $0 −$255 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Down 19¢ 0¢ $75 $0 −$75 (-100%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Up 47¢ 0¢ $400 $0 −$400 (-100%)
Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5 Over 61¢ 0¢ $5,750 $0 −$5,750 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Up 11¢ 0¢ $1,194 $0 −$1,194 (-100%)
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 Over 0¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Up 26¢ 0¢ $400 $0 −$400 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Up 5¢ 0¢ $51 $0 −$51 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 Jun 14 $2,034 +$2,496 +123%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 Jun 14 $2,540 +$2,782 +110%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 Jun 14 $103 −$100 -97%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $2,423 −$2,385 -98%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $515 −$348 -68%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $2,026 +$668 +33%
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $1,564 +$7,585 +485%
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $8 −$8 -98%
Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $412 −$400 -97%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.6T? Jun 11 $259 −$249 -96%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.2T? Jun 11 $643 −$620 -96%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? Jun 11 $1,700 −$1,639 -96%
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be at le Jun 11 $52 −$50 -96%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T? Jun 11 $6 −$6 -96%
SpaceX IPO: Will Elon Musk Ring the Bell? Jun 11 $102 −$100 -98%
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be at le Jun 11 $24 −$24 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET May 18 $493 −$475 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET May 18 $80 −$75 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET May 18 $415 −$400 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET May 18 $420 −$400 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET May 18 $160 −$150 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET May 18 $543 −$525 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET May 18 $409 +$175 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET May 18 $365 +$242 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET May 18 $344 +$470 +137%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET May 18 $55 −$51 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET May 18 $103 +$83 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET May 18 $455 +$800 +176%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET May 18 $572 −$542 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET May 18 $100 +$5 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET May 18 $341 −$341 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET May 18 $441 +$32 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET May 18 $81 −$76 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET May 18 $235 −$225 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET May 18 $677 −$75 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET May 18 $496 +$425 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET May 18 $366 −$350 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET May 18 $1,415 −$1,346 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET May 18 $1,257 −$1,194 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET May 18 $779 −$750 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET May 18 $456 +$625 +137%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET May 18 $866 −$825 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET May 18 $464 +$431 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET May 18 $847 −$800 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET May 18 $1,446 −$1,386 -96%
Starmer out by May 31, 2026? May 18 $5,263 +$1,168 +22%
Starmer out by May 19, 2026? May 18 $1,754 −$1,364 -78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET May 17 $267 −$255 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET May 17 $103 +$73 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET May 17 $365 −$350 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) BUY Netherlands 15¢ $205 11m
Netherlands vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Under 99¢ $2,365 19m
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) BUY Netherlands 14¢ $308 25m
Netherlands vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 10¢ $103 34m
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) BUY Netherlands 17¢ $512 38m
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) BUY Netherlands 18¢ $512 39m
Netherlands vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 65¢ $202 47m
Netherlands vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 65¢ $101 48m
Netherlands vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 64¢ $101 48m
Netherlands vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 63¢ $101 48m
Netherlands vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 62¢ $1,011 50m
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 13¢ $308 1h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 25¢ $307 1h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 21¢ $299 1h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 SELL Over 99¢ $4,529 2h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 SELL Over 100¢ $499 2h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 SELL Over 100¢ $642 2h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 SELL Over 100¢ $2,122 2h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 SELL Over 100¢ $664 2h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 SELL Over 100¢ $579 2h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 SELL Over 100¢ $814 2h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 0¢ $103 2h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 44¢ $2,034 2h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Over 46¢ $2,423 3h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 47¢ $2,540 3h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 1¢ $167 3h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 77¢ $2,694 3h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 57¢ $2,026 4h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 2¢ $515 4h
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? SELL Yes 100¢ $6 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,206.36 · official $3,207.28 (match) · 891 history records