Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T06:39:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FC 0xfcb4…2cfe crypto 89 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (65 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$36 (-3%) realized −$28 · open −$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR59%break-even
Win rate59%52W / 36L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day64.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$23now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$50
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (65 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +59%
net ROI/market (all)-1.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 88 +9.3% -1.1% 59% 59% -12.6%
≤30d 88 +9.3% -1.1% 59% 59% -12.6%
≤90d 88 +9.3% -1.1% 59% 59% -12.6%
all 88 +9.3% -1.1% 59% 59% -12.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover64.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -1.1% 59% -12.6%
10% ← realistic here -10.6% 57% -20.9%
15% -19.2% 51% -28.6%
20% -27.1% 43% -35.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +37% → late -19% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$15 · ×0.64 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$23
Realized−$28
Unrealized−$8
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses52 / 36
Open positions1
Markets (closed)88 / 89
History coverage1d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day64.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 88 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Down 69¢ 50¢ $31 $23 −$8 (-27%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 23 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 25 $25 +$8 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 25 $20 +$10 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 25 $26 −$26 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 25 $35 −$35 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 25 $32 +$27 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 25 $43 −$42 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 25 $6 +$2 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 25 $30 +$3 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 25 $24 +$6 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 25 $32 −$31 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 25 $26 +$14 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 25 $21 +$11 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 25 $23 −$22 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 25 $30 −$29 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 25 $41 −$39 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 25 $32 +$18 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 25 $26 +$13 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 25 $21 +$12 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 25 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 25 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 25 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 25 $36 −$36 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 24 $21 +$13 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 24 $11 +$8 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 24 $14 −$14 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 24 $15 −$15 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 24 $15 +$3 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 24 $12 +$9 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 24 $16 −$16 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 24 $13 +$7 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 24 $10 +$5 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 24 $10 +$2 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 24 $10 +$6 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 24 $10 +$6 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 24 $10 +$3 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 24 $20 +$10 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 24 $13 +$8 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 24 $10 +$5 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 24 $10 +$4 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 24 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 24 $10 +$15 +146%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 24 $10 +$12 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 24 $10 +$21 +198%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 24 $10 −$10 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $32 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $25 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $35 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $32 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $43 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $6 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $30 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $24 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $32 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $26 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $21 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $23 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $30 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $41 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $32 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $26 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $21 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $21 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $11 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $14 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $15 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $15 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $12 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $16 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $13 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $10 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $10 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $10 12h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $22.87 · official $22.42 (match) · 159 history records