Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T14:36:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
FC 0xfcb2…abea world 236 markets active 2h ago coverage 254d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$461 (+9%) realized +$481 · open −$20
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate45%105W / 128L
Drawdown78%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day1.9pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$360now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$18
14 days+$164
30 days+$223
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 82% +$318
politics 7% −$99
sports 5% +$247
other 3% −$25
finance 2% −$33
crypto 1% +$12
tech 1% +$3
culture 1% +$16
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-19.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -25.1% -32.3% 0% 0% -20.2%
≤30d 12 +12.7% +2.0% 50% 25% +3.2%
≤90d 33 +9.3% -1.1% 61% 48% +12.1%
all 233 -11.2% -19.6% 45% 42% -0.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.6% 42% -0.0%
10% -27.3% 34% -9.6%
15% -34.4% 30% -18.3%
20% -40.8% 24% -26.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +24% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt +10% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -18% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$7 · ×1.83 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.5 per $1 lost it wins $1.5
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

254d coverage
Net worth$360
Realized+$481
Unrealized−$20
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses105 / 128
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions3
Markets (closed)233 / 236
History coverage254d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown78%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 233 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 67¢ 66¢ $300 $293 −$7 (-2%)
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes 15¢ 12¢ $70 $58 −$12 (-17%)
Will Yossi Cohen be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-17%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 19 $127 −$5 -4%
Will Israel strike 7 countries in 2026? Jun 16 $29 −$13 -46%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 10 $200 +$3 +2%
Will Israel strike 6 countries in 2026? Jun 10 $40 −$4 -9%
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 08 $100 −$19 -19%
Will Israel strike 5 countries in 2026? Jun 08 $98 +$146 +150%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 07 $300 +$56 +18%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 31 $556 +$35 +6%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 20 May 28 $50 +$4 +8%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 23 $35 +$30 +86%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? May 23 $20 −$3 -16%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by December 31, 2026? May 20 $30 −$7 -23%
Will Israel strike 3 countries in 2026? May 09 $90 +$25 +28%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? Apr 25 $16 −$16 -100%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30? Apr 24 $15 −$2 -16%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? Apr 20 $4 −$4 -100%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30? Apr 19 $30 +$8 +27%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Apr 17 $20 +$8 +40%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30? Apr 17 $20 +$18 +90%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in April? Apr 15 $17 −$17 -100%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 15, 2026? Apr 14 $10 +$1 +12%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 18, 2026? Apr 14 $10 +$2 +15%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 21, 2026? Apr 14 $10 +$2 +16%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 12, 2026? Apr 13 $10 +$1 +12%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 10, 2026? Apr 11 $10 $0 +4%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Apr 08 $55 +$31 +57%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15? Apr 08 $95 +$99 +104%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? Apr 08 $45 +$128 +288%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of March? Apr 01 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of March? Apr 01 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Israel strike 4 countries in 2026? Mar 30 $70 +$32 +45%
Will another country strike Iran by March 31? Mar 23 $15 −$9 -62%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 31? Mar 23 $80 +$20 +25%
Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 28? Mar 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 3, 2026? Mar 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Israel strike Gaza on December 30? Mar 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Netanyahu be pardoned by February 28? Mar 18 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Israel strike Greater Beirut by December 31? Mar 18 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Israel strike Gaza on December 29? Mar 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Donald Trump say "Hanukkah" or "Chanukah" during Israel President Mar 18 $3 −$3 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 7, 2026? Mar 18 $3 −$3 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 6, 2026? Mar 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Israel strike Gaza on December 31? Mar 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Israel strike Gaza on December 27? Mar 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Israel strike Gaza on December 26? Mar 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Israel strike Gaza on December 24? Mar 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 30? Mar 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Israel strike Gaza on December 23? Mar 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 29? Mar 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 23? Mar 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 5¢ $16 1h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 14¢ $30 1h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 9¢ $2 2h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 2h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 9¢ $14 3h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 9¢ $2 3h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 9¢ $4 3h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 9¢ $4 3h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 16¢ $40 17h
Will Israel strike 7 countries in 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $9 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 28¢ $48 8d
Will Israel strike 6 countries in 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $15 9d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 30¢ $155 10d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 29¢ $200 11d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 67¢ $300 11d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 25¢ $53 11d
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? SELL Yes 54¢ $81 11d
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? BUY Yes 67¢ $100 11d
Will Israel strike 5 countries in 2026? SELL Yes 35¢ $53 11d
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? SELL Yes 34¢ $102 11d
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? BUY Yes 33¢ $100 11d
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? SELL No 46¢ $135 11d
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? BUY No 34¢ $100 11d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 57¢ $106 11d
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? SELL Yes 52¢ $118 11d
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? BUY Yes 44¢ $100 11d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 54¢ $100 11d
Will Israel strike 5 countries in 2026? SELL Yes 35¢ $25 11d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? SELL Yes 1¢ $15 19d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 25¢ $25 20d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $359.74 · official $359.74 (match) · 627 history records